"US August employment weakness…September 'big cut' rate-cut hopes"

US August employment indicators fell well short of expectations, prompting views that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), has a slightly increased chance of implementing a 50bp(0.5%point) policy rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

On the 5th, according to CoinDesk, a virtual asset (cryptocurrency) specialized media, once August employment weakness was confirmed, the market began to reflect expectations that the Fed's rate cut could be larger. In particular, the probability of a 50bp cut — which had previously been almost impossible — was estimated to have risen from 0% to 11.7% immediately after the announcement.

Earlier that day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that nonfarm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August. This figure falls far short of the market estimate of 75,000 and the prior month's revised figure of 79,000.

Markets reacted immediately after the data release. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched 113,000 dollars, and gold prices surged more than 1% to a record high of 3,644 dollars per ounce. US stock futures rose slightly, the dollar weakened, and the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 6bp to 4.11%.