Korean stock market market capitalization surpasses Bitcoin after two months…"Policy rally expectations reignited"

The domestic stock market (KOSPI·KOSDAQ) market capitalization has surpassed Bitcoin again after two months. While the KOSPI continued its uptrend on expectations of a policy rally, Bitcoin (BTC) moved within a trading range and remained stalled.

On the 12th, according to the Korea Exchange and CoinGecko, the previous day's domestic market capitalization was 3190.1392 trillion won, about 39 trillion won above Bitcoin's market cap of 2.2702 trillion dollars (approximately 3150.4138 trillion won). The domestic market had trailed Bitcoin's market cap for 44 trading days from July 4 to the 4th of this month, marking the longest such stretch this year.

The KOSPI rallied on expectations of market-supporting policies after the new government took office, but since the tax reform proposal was announced in July it has traded in a 3100–3200 range. Conversely, recently President Lee Jae-myung has shown a flexible stance regarding the major shareholder threshold for capital gains tax and the separate taxation of dividend income, which is interpreted as reigniting expectations of a policy rally.

Expectations that the government will consistently pursue corporate governance improvements and shareholder-friendly policies are also acting positively on the market. In brokerage circles there is optimism that if the capital gains tax threshold is maintained, the dividend income tax rate is kept below 30%, and the suspension period for share buybacks and cancellations is shortened, the KOSPI could see further gains toward year-end highs.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been seeing rebound expectations centered on rate cuts in the second half of the year. After relinquishing 120,000 dollars last month, it is currently trading in a 115,000 dollars range. If a U.S. rate cut in September becomes virtually certain and risk-on sentiment strengthens, there is also the possibility of gains driven by liquidity inflows.