[Analysis] "Bitcoin breaks the September jinx and shows a bullish trend…the formula of a weak month is over"

September has long been regarded as the toughest period for Bitcoin (BTC) investors, but analysis says this year is different.

On the 20th (local time), XWIN Research Japan of CryptoQuant said, "Over the past 10 years, the average September return has been negative, and there was a six-year consecutive decline from 2017 to 2022. Profit-taking, seasonal investor sentiment contraction, and regulatory negative factors have held it back each year. But 2025 is a different story."

They added, "As of mid-September, Bitcoin is up 8.13% and holding around $117,000, and exchange holdings have fallen by more than 20%, from over 3,000,000 at the end of 2024 to about 2,450,000 now," and analyzed, "This is acting as a major factor supporting prices due to reduced selling pressure and supply shortages caused by institutional inflows."

On-chain indicators also appeared positive. The long-term holder spent output profit ratio (LTH SOPR) is 1.44; some profit-taking is occurring, but it is far from the overheating phase of past highs. The majority of long-term holders are still absorbing sell-side supply and maintaining firm holding intentions.

The author diagnosed, "Unlike past September average returns of -7% to -13%, this year has already recorded more than +8%. Although the month is not over yet, attention is on whether it will finish this month as a 'plus September', and furthermore whether it will challenge an all-time high. The formula that September is a weak month may no longer be valid."