"Bitcoin's September weakness matches past patterns…Will enter a bullish phase in October"

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

Bitcoin (BTC) showed a traditional bearish pattern in September, but this year it recorded positive territory.
Analyst Peterson said that after entering October, Bitcoin rose with an 80% probability, and 60% of annual performance occurs after October 3.
Since 2019, October has recorded an average increase of 21.89%, and it was forecast that there is a high possibility of entering a bull market soon.

An analysis found that Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a shaky short-term trend, but considering seasonal patterns, it is not significantly different from the historical average.

On the 27th (local time), Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson told Cointelegraph, "September is traditionally a bearish period with an average return of -3.43%, but this year it has remained slightly in positive territory so far at +0.68%. September 25 statistically records the lowest median."

He added, "Over the following five days, Bitcoin rose with an 80% probability and produced an average return of 1.7%."

Peterson also forecasted, "60% of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs after October 3. The probability of reaching 200,000 dollars by mid-2026 reaches 50%."

Historical data also supports this optimism. Since 2019, Bitcoin has closed every October with positive returns, with an average increase of 21.89%. Even in the 2022 bear market, it rose 5.53%. Peterson predicted, "If the market follows this pattern, there is a high likelihood that a bull market will open soon after the current correction ends."

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