Global markets including Asia rebound, gold tops $3,800 to a record high

Dollar weak on US government shutdown concerns, gold hits record high

On the 29th, global markets including Asian stock markets showed gains. The US August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released last weekend rose 0.3%p month-on-month, higher than expected, but core PCE rose only 0.2%p, which led to no setback in prospects for future rate cuts and helped stabilize Asian markets.

Japan's Nikkei index, ahead of this weekend's election to choose the Liberal Democratic Party's new leader and prime minister, fell 0.69% but has risen 5% since September. Attention is focused on the new Japanese prime minister's impact on fiscal and monetary policy.

South Korea's KOSPI index rebounded 1.5%. The KOSPI has risen 7.8% in September.

According to data released over the weekend by China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's industrial profits in August increased 20.4% year-on-year, showing growth for the first time in four months. Factory deflation also eased for the first time in six months.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 1.89%, and China's blue-chip CSI300 rose 0.7%. Taiwan's TAIEX fell 1.7%.

The MSCI index for the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan rose 0.4%.

US stock index futures were higher around 5 a.m. EST, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.5%.

As the possibility of a US government shutdown at the end of the month came into focus, the gold price once again surpassed $3,800 an ounce, a record high. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.952.

The Euro Stoxx 600, the most comprehensive European market index, rose 0.4%.

In the bond market, the 10-year government bond found support at 4.16%.

The nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled to be released this Friday. With Congress deadlocked and the possibility of a US government shutdown, some releases could be delayed.

On Monday alone, five speeches by officials including the presidents of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are scheduled.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at next week's meeting.

Brent crude fell 0.4% to $69.84 a barrel, and US crude fell 0.5% to $65.37 a barrel.

Ulrich Urban, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg, said, "If a shutdown is prolonged it could have negative effects, but the likelihood is not high," adding, "The US market is being driven by a Goldilocks environment."

Major congressional leaders plan to meet with President Donald Trump on the 29th. If lawmakers fail to agree on a short-term spending bill, federal funds will be exhausted at the end of the month, and the bill to fund the government through mid-November must pass by October 1.

Kim Jeong-a, guest reporter kja@hankyung.com