Arthur Hayes "Bitcoin's 4-year cycle doesn't apply this time"

A claim has emerged that the existing Bitcoin (BTC) 4-year cycle theory is no longer valid.

On the 9th (Korean time), Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder, wrote on his blog that "the shift in monetary policy in the United States and China is driving a new cycle," and analyzed that "Bitcoin will remain the best form of money."

Hayes analyzed that "Bitcoin's price cycle is determined by the supply·price of the dollar and the yuan," and that "this cycle is different from the previous three." He added that "liquidity will increase again as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) resumes cutting rates and China attempts to ease deflation."

Hayes divided the four major Bitcoin rallies since 2009 into 'Genesis (2009~2017)', 'Corona (2017~2021)', and 'New Era (2021~present)'. He said, "In each period, the trends in credit supply in the US and China coincided with Bitcoin price peaks," and "slowdowns in credit growth in the dollar and the yuan caused each bubble collapse."

In particular, Hayes forecasted that this cycle may last longer due to US political factors. He explained, "President Donald Trump is trying to reduce the burden of debt by overheating the economy, and the Treasury is expanding market liquidity by issuing short-term debt."

He also saw China's current economic situation as a factor that would fuel Bitcoin's rise. Hayes said, "China also shows signs of shifting to an easing monetary policy to mitigate real estate deflation," and emphasized, "If Washington and Beijing maintain accommodative monetary policies, Bitcoin will rise again."