Will Trump really receive the Nobel Peace Prize? …Checking Polymarket

Amid talk that U.S. President Donald Trump, who helped broker the dramatic cease-fire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas, might win the Nobel Peace Prize, foreign betting sites also show that Trump's chances of winning have slightly increased after the cease-fire agreement.

The U.S. decentralized betting site Polymarket projected on the night of the 8th (local time) that Trump has a 6% chance of receiving the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. According to U.S. newsweekly Newsweek, Trump's chances on the site had peaked at 4.9% on the 5th and then fell to 2.7% on the 7th. Organizations with higher chances than Trump include the local activist group Emergency Response Office active in war-torn Sudan (29%), Médecins Sans Frontières (13%), and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

According to the British betting site Nicer Odds, based on the Swedish online gambling site Betsson, Trump's odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are 6-to-1. Higher odds generally mean many see winning as less likely. Candidates with lower odds than Trump include Syrian Middle East peace activist Abir Haji Ibrahim (4.5-to-1), the World Food Programme (WFP, 5-to-1), and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of Russian anti-government activist Alexei Navalny who died under suspicious circumstances in prison (5-to-1).

Trump has long expressed his desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize. In his keynote speech at last month's U.N. General Assembly, he listed Israel-Iran, Rwanda-Democratic Republic of the Congo, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Thailand-Cambodia, India-Pakistan, Egypt-Ethiopia, and Serbia-Kosovo, claiming that his peace mediation ended seven wars. Coincidentally, the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on the 10th, two days after the announcement of the first-phase Gaza cease-fire agreement.

However, experts view Trump's chances of winning this year as unlikely. In addition to issues with his foreign policy stances such as tariff wars, cuts to foreign aid, denial of the climate crisis, and criticism of the U.N., a procedural issue is also cited: the Nobel Committee only recognizes nominations received by midnight (Central European Time) on January 31 each year as valid candidates, which lowers his chances.

Asked at the White House about the possibility of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump said, "I don't know. But we have solved seven wars and are ready to finish an eighth. I think I will eventually solve the Russia situation," adding, "Last week, 7,000 people were killed in Russia and Ukraine. It's a terrible situation." He added, "I think we will solve that problem, but maybe they will find a reason not to give me the prize."

Hong Min-seong, Hankyung.com reporter mshong@hankyung.com