"How did once-prosperous Japan end up like this" Shock… What will happen in 5 years

Japan's sinking economy…Falls to 6th in the world, overtaken by the UK in 5 years

IMF World Economic Outlook

Japan's 2030 nominal GDP

US$5.1198 trillion, 6th place

Falls to 5th next year, overtaken by India

Overtaken by the UK in 5 years

Trade deficit, weakening real economy

A forecast has emerged that Japan's economy will fall to 6th in the world in 2030, being overtaken by India and the UK.

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun on the 16th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its "World Economic Outlook" released on the 14th that Japan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 will be US$5.1198 trillion. It is expected to fall to sixth place in five years, following the United States, China, India, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Japan's nominal GDP ranking remained third after the United States and China until 2022. However, in 2023 it was overtaken by Germany and fell to fourth. Next year it is expected to fall to fifth, being overtaken by India (US$4.5056 trillion), and in 2030 it is expected to be overtaken by the UK (US$5.1997 trillion) as well, falling to sixth.

India has a population of over 1.4 billion, the largest in the world. Fueled by strong personal consumption and corporate capital investment aimed at capturing domestic demand, it has continued high growth. According to the IMF, India's real economic growth rate, excluding price effects, is expected to remain in the annual 6% range after 2026. It is also expected to overtake Germany and rise to third in the world in 2029.

The UK has a population of about 69 million, roughly half that of Japan. However, the population is expected to continue growing thanks to immigration. According to the IMF, the UK's real economic growth rate after 2026 is expected to be 1.3~1.5% annually, outpacing Japan (0.5~0.6% annually).

Nominal GDP is affected not only by inflation but also by exchange rates because international comparisons are made after converting to dollars. Takeshi Takayama, chief researcher at the Nissay Research Institute, pointed out, "Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the value of the yen has fallen significantly, and GDP converted into dollars has decreased by about 30%," adding, "Trade deficits are continuing, and the real economy is weakening compared to other countries."

Tokyo = Correspondent Kim Il-gyu