Bitcoin Falls Back Below $80,000 as Trump Speech, Iran Talks Keep Markets on Edge

Investors are growing more cautious ahead of President Donald Trump’s White House speech, with markets watching for any remarks on US-Iran talks to formally end the conflict. Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 as traders stayed on the sidelines. Market watchers say whether the token holds support at $80,000 and breaks through resistance in the $82,000 to $83,000 range will determine its near-term direction.

As of 2:42 p.m. on May 8, bitcoin was trading at $79,684 on Binance’s USDT market, down 1.63% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it was changing hands at 117.76 million won, or about $84,800. The kimchi premium, which measures the gap between prices on domestic and offshore exchanges, stood at 0.67% at the same time.

Iran Talks in Focus Before Trump Speech as Middle East Tensions, Rate Uncertainty Weigh

Global markets remained in a wait-and-see mode as hopes for a negotiated end to the conflict were offset by lingering Middle East tensions and uncertainty over interest rates.

Reuters reported on May 7 that Trump is scheduled to speak at noon on May 8 in the White House Rose Garden. The White House has not disclosed details of the address. Because the speech comes a month after the ceasefire between the US and Iran, investors are watching to see whether he comments on talks toward a formal settlement. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have also fueled speculation that Trump could deliver tougher rhetoric toward Tehran.

Trump told PBS News in an interview the previous day that there was a very high chance the negotiations with Iran would reach an agreement. The US and Iran are reportedly nearing a memorandum of understanding that would include a temporary halt to uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. He also said military action could resume if the talks collapse, keeping pressure on Tehran.

Military tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. The US has stepped up pressure by tightening maritime controls and conducting military operations. Iran has responded by signaling possible shipping restrictions and the potential use of force.

Investors are also increasingly concerned about a renewed pickup in inflation and the prospect of higher rates for longer. Major central banks are keeping the door open to further rate increases to respond to price pressures. Some are also warning of stagflation, with slowing global growth coinciding with rising prices.

CME FedWatch data show markets are pricing in a 96.3% chance of no rate change in June, 91% in July and 90% in September. The probability of a rate cut this year is in the low teens. US Treasury yields have been volatile in the near term as investors digest labor-market data and Trump’s comments.

ETF Inflows Continue, but Bitcoin’s Upward Momentum Is Fading

Spot-bitcoin ETFs continue to post net inflows, providing some support from a demand perspective. After drawing $162.8 million of net inflows last week, the funds have continued to attract money, suggesting institutional demand remains intact.

Bitcoin is attempting a structural rebound as it reclaims key on-chain price levels. Still, overhead supply and the durability of demand are emerging as key variables for the short-term trend. Glassnode said in a weekly report that bitcoin had moved above the True Market Mean, around $78,200, and the short-term holder cost basis, around $79,100. If those levels hold, the next resistance could come near $85,200.

Bitcoin Vector said the $80,000 to $87,000 range shows relatively light on-chain supply resistance. If demand strengthens, prices could rise quickly. Sustained gains, however, would require enough buying to absorb selling pressure.

The rapid recovery in investor sentiment is also raising concerns about short-term overheating. Santiment said bullish sentiment has climbed to its highest level in about four months. Such crowded optimism can increase the risk of a near-term pullback.

At the same time, rising profit-taking is fueling signs of rally fatigue. Realized profits by long-term holders have increased to about $180 million a day, while daily realized losses remain elevated at roughly $479 million. Glassnode said it would be difficult to call this a full recovery in demand unless realized losses stabilize below about $200 million.

The macro backdrop is also limiting the scope for further gains. Binance Research said the digital-asset market has recovered to about $2.6 trillion, but the risk of a prolonged war and stagflation could remain a drag.

Bitcoin Drops Back Below $80,000 as $83,000 Becomes Key Rebound Test

Analysts say bitcoin has entered a critical zone for judging its short-term direction, with focus on whether it can defend support near $80,000 and clear resistance in the $82,000 to $83,000 range.

Aayush Jindal, an analyst at NewsBTC, said bitcoin is maintaining an upward bias on support around $80,000. If the price establishes itself above $81,500, another leg higher may be possible. Near-term resistance stands around $82,000 and $82,750, and a break above those levels could open the way to $83,500 and then $84,200.

If the rally stalls, $80,800 and $80,200 would serve as initial support levels. A break below those areas could send bitcoin down to $78,850 and $77,850.

Some analysts also see bitcoin entering a short-term profit-taking zone. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin is approaching its 200-day moving average, around $83,300, while holding within an ascending channel. That area could act as an important technical resistance level, with short-term profit-taking likely to emerge on approach.

A break below key support could intensify correction pressure. Rakesh Upadhyay, an analyst at Cointelegraph, said bitcoin’s upward trend would weaken if it falls below its 20-day exponential moving average, around $77,477, opening the door to deeper losses. If it breaks above resistance at $84,000 instead, momentum could strengthen and leave room for a move toward $92,000.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io