Bitwise CIO "Bitcoin, explosive surge like gold imminent"

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan analyzed that this year's 57% surge in gold could be a signal foreshadowing Bitcoin's next upward phase.

On the 22nd (local time), according to The Block, Hougan said, "The structural rise in the gold market in 2025 is a useful reference case showing which direction Bitcoin might move," adding, "Bitcoin, currently trading in the $108,000-$112,000 range, is likely to show a similar pattern."

He cited large-scale net purchases by central banks as the key driver of gold price increases since 2022. Hougan explained, "As central banks continuously bought gold, price-sensitive investors responded with selling early in the rally, and only after that selling was exhausted did the full-scale rise begin."

In Bitcoin's case there is no central bank demand, but steady buying from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporations plays the same role. Since early this year, institutions and corporations have bought about 1.39 million bitcoins, while new supply is much smaller. He explained that the reason the price hasn't surged despite this is that some holders' selling pressure still remained.

Hougan predicted, "It now appears the pool of sellers is nearly exhausted," and "If ETF and corporate buying continue and on-chain selling supply decreases, Bitcoin will soon break out of its current range." However, he cautioned against impatience about timing. "Don't envy gold's surge; watch with expectation," he emphasized, "what gold showed was direction, not timing."