"I thought Bitcoin would surge like gold..." A chilling warning has emerged

Clear signs of 'decoupling' between Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets

Despite the recent rally in gold prices, Bitcoin—often dubbed “digital gold”—has struggled to gain traction. Analysts say signs are growing clearer that a decoupling (de-synchronization) is taking place between Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets.

According to CoinMarketCap on the 31st, Bitcoin’s price fell about 7% over the past month. In particular, on the 30th of last month it plunged in a single day from the $87,000 range to the $81,000 range. Bitcoin sliding to around $81,000 marks the first time in about three months, since last November. In Korea, it is trading in the 120 million won range.

The decline in Bitcoin is seen as having been influenced by a sharp drop in software stocks led by Microsoft (MS). As of the 30th of last month, the Nasdaq index at one point during the session fell more than 2%, and gold prices also tumbled nearly 10% from the record high set the previous day.

Institutional fund flows are also drawing attention. According to SosoValue, a crypto-asset data analytics firm, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted net outflows on a monthly basis for three consecutive months. This is the first time since their launch in early 2024 that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen three straight months of outflows. On a weekly basis as well, net outflows continued for a second consecutive week.

The near-term outlook is not bright either. With key support levels having broken, the price could potentially fall further into the $70,000 range. John Glover, chief investment officer (CIO) at U.S. asset manager Ledn, said of the Bitcoin sell-off, “It is part of the broader correction that has continued since the record high in October,” adding, “The price could drop to $71,000.”

By contrast, while gold has seen a short-term pullback, assessments say its medium- to long-term upward trend remains intact. Spot prices last week briefly climbed above $5,500 per troy ounce intraday to set a new all-time high before retreating on profit-taking. Even so, gold prices surged more than 20% on a monthly basis last month, extending a strong uptrend. Glover said, “Expectations were high that Bitcoin would play the role of ‘digital gold,’ but it is still being perceived as a risk asset.”

By Lee Jun-hyung, BloombergBit reporter