"Bitcoin was expected to surge like gold"…a stark warning emerges

Bitcoin–traditional safe-haven assets show clear signs of “decoupling”

Even as gold prices rally, Bitcoin—long dubbed “digital gold”—has struggled to gain traction. Analysts say the decoupling (de-synchronisation) between Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets is becoming increasingly apparent.

According to CoinMarketCap on the 31st, Bitcoin fell about 7% over the past month. In particular, on the 30th it plunged in a single day from the 87,000-dollar range to the 81,000-dollar range. The slide to around 81,000 dollars marks the first time since November last year—about three months ago—that Bitcoin has been pushed down to that level. In South Korea, it is trading in the 120 million won range.

The decline is seen as being influenced by a sharp sell-off in software stocks, led by Microsoft (MS). As of the 30th, the Nasdaq index was down more than 2% at one point intraday, and gold prices also tumbled nearly 10% from the record high set the previous day.

Institutional flows are also showing unusual signals. According to SosoValue, a cryptoasset data analytics firm, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted net monthly outflows for three consecutive months. This is the first time since their launch in early 2024 that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen funds exit for three straight months. On a weekly basis, net outflows have also continued for two consecutive weeks.

The near-term outlook is not bright either. With key support levels broken, some warn prices could fall further into the 70,000-dollar range. John Glover, chief investment officer (CIO) at U.S. asset manager Ledn, said the Bitcoin selling pressure is “part of a broader correction that has continued since breaking to new highs in October,” adding that “the price could drop to 71,000 dollars.”

Gold, meanwhile, has seen a short-term pullback, but is assessed to be maintaining its medium- to long-term uptrend. Spot prices last week briefly topped 5,500 dollars per troy ounce intraday to set a new all-time high, before pulling back on profit-taking. Even so, gold surged more than 20% over the past month, extending a strong uptrend. Glover noted that “expectations were high that Bitcoin would serve as ‘digital gold,’ but it is still being perceived as a risk asset.”

Reporter Lee Jun-hyung, Bloomingbit