US Democratic lawmakers introduce bill to regulate war betting…targeting Polymarket

US Democratic lawmakers have introduced legislation to curb betting in prediction markets tied to wars and military operations. The move follows allegations that bettors may have used inside information in wagers over the possibility of US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

According to Cointelegraph on the 18th (local time), Rep. Greg Casar and Sen. Chris Murphy introduced the "BETS OFF Act," which would ban event contracts related to sensitive military operations and federal government functions.

The lawmakers said the bill was prompted by signs that some Polymarket accounts placed unusually large bets on the likelihood of the US and Israel launching a war against Iran. Murphy has previously argued that it is highly likely that people with inside information about then-President Donald Trump's plans for strikes on Iran participated in those bets.

Casar said, "We should not live in a country where decisions about war and peace, life and death are swayed by someone sitting in the Situation Room wagering hundreds of thousands of dollars."

The bill extends a broader push in Washington to tighten oversight of prediction-market platforms and allegations of insider-driven trading. Last week, Sen. Adam Schiff also introduced the "DEATH BETS Act" to block the listing of event contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination and an individual's death.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi offer betting products on a wide range of topics, including sports and US politics. However, controversy has grown as they have expanded to trading detailed military scenarios surrounding a potential US-Israel conflict with Iran.

A military journalist at The Times of Israel said he received threats "aimed at settling a Polymarket prediction" after reporting the date an Iranian missile struck Israel. Critics say war-related prediction markets are influencing not only the parties involved in real-world events but also reporting on the ground.

Even now, Polymarket hosts markets on issues such as whether the US will deploy ground troops to Iran, the timing of a ceasefire and the possibility of a change in Iran's leadership. Regarding its Middle East-related markets, Polymarket said, "The value of prediction markets lies in providing accurate and unbiased forecasts on socially important events," adding that it "can offer answers that are difficult to obtain from TV news or X."