Bitcoin stalls… 'Uptober' didn't happen

Uk Jin

Summary

Recently Bitcoin fell 2.9% over the past month due to the U.S.-China trade conflict, among other factors.
Experts forecast that Bitcoin could fall below 100,000 dollars in the short term.
However, by year-end there is optimism that inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and the possibility of rate cuts could push it past 200,000 dollars.

Crypto Now

October rallies repeated every year, but

Down 2.9% due to U.S.-China trade conflict

"Surpassing 200,000 dollars by year-end" optimism too

Bitcoin, which had drawn expectations for 'Uptober' (up+october), is faltering. It had shown an uptrend every October, but this year looks different. Some say Bitcoin could fall below 100,000 dollars in the short term.

According to CoinMarketCap on the 26th, Bitcoin fell 2.9% over the past month. It climbed past 120,000 dollars earlier this month but is currently trading in the 110,000-dollar range. Over the past 10 years, bitcoin recorded October gains every year except in 2018. For that reason, the market had expectations that a similar pattern would continue this year.

However, investor sentiment contracted as the U.S.-China trade conflict intensified. On the 11th, U.S. President Donald Trump said in response to China's rare earths export controls, "From November 1, an additional 100% tariff will be imposed on China." After President Trump's remarks, 27 trillion won were liquidated in the cryptocurrency futures market in a single day.

Jeff Kendrick, head of research at Standard Chartered (SC), forecasted, "(Due to the U.S.-China) trade war, Bitcoin will fall below 100,000 dollars." John Glover Reden, Chief Investment Officer, also diagnosed, "The bull market is over with the recent breach of 105,000 dollars," and "Bitcoin could fall to 70,000–80,000 dollars."

However, the long-term outlook was evaluated positively. Kendrick said, "Bitcoin could surpass 200,000 dollars by the end of the year despite large forced liquidations and President Trump's tariff threats," and predicted, "Continuous inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will spur price increases."

Also, the possibility that the U.S. central bank (Fed) will end quantitative tightening could act as an upward driver. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that day, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates is 98.9%.

There are also opinions that it is a buying opportunity at a low price. VanEck said in a report on the 23rd, "The recent Bitcoin decline is a temporary correction. Compared to gold's price movements, it is likely close to the bottom," and "Investors aiming to buy should make good use of the current phase."

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