'Will it Break 4100'…Korea-U.S. Tariff Agreement and U.S. Semiconductor Tailwind Expected to Boost Strength [Today's Market Preview]

On the 30th, the KOSPI index is expected to start higher, influenced by the Korea-U.S. tariff negotiations that were concluded the previous day. With semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA rallying in the U.S. market overnight, the KOSPI market, which has a high weighting in semiconductors, may also show strength.

The KOSPI closed the previous day at 4081.15, marking another all-time high. After-hours, NextTrade surged on news that Korea and the United States had finalized tariff negotiations, raising expectations that the KOSPI market could rise after the open.

In the after-market the previous day, auto-related stocks that would see tariffs reduced to 15% jumped sharply. Hyundai Motor closed the after-market up 13.97% at 285,500 won compared with the Korea Exchange closing price, and Kia finished up 10.48% at 125,500 won, widening their gains in the after-market. With the inclusion of a Korea-U.S. shipbuilding cooperation project worth $150 billion in the agreement, shipbuilding stocks such as Hanwha Ocean and Samsung Heavy Industries also showed strength.

Overnight in New York, the market was mixed as expectations for an additional U.S. policy rate cut in December diminished. This followed remarks by Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), that "(an additional policy rate cut in December) is not a foregone conclusion." As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 74.37 points (-0.16%) from the previous session, the S&P 500 fell 0.30 points (0.00%), and the Nasdaq Composite, led by technology stocks, rose 130.98 points (0.55%).

Despite Chairman Powell's remarks, semiconductor stocks leading the artificial intelligence (AI) rally were strong. NVIDIA rose 2.99% that day, surpassing a market capitalization of 5 trillion won for the first time ever. This exceeds the gross domestic product (GDP) of Germany, the world's third-largest economy. The stock was driven higher by suggestions that the U.S. government might allow exports of NVIDIA AI chips to China. Other semiconductor stocks, including AMD (2.45%), Broadcom (3.29%), and Micron (2.13%), also rose together that day.

Scheduled corporate earnings releases are also expected to affect stock prices. Hyundai Motor will report third-quarter results today. As this is the first quarter in which U.S. tariff costs are fully reflected, Hyundai's operating profit is likely to fall by more than 30% in the third quarter.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Driven by the effect from SK Hynix the previous day, the KOSPI rose nearly 2% to reach the 4080 level, and today it will attempt to enter the 4100 level, but there may be volatility," adding, "Because large domestic and international factors — such as October's FOMC burden, divergent after-hours stock moves among hyperscaler companies, and the outcome of Korea-U.S. tariff negotiations — must be digested at once, today attention should be paid more to individual sector plays with tariff negotiation momentum, such as shipbuilding and autos, rather than the index."

Reporter Yang Jiyun yang@hankyung.com