They said Bitcoin would definitely skyrocket in October… the myth is broken [Im Hyun-woo's Economy VOCA]

The so-called 'Uptober' myth that Bitcoin prices rise in October has been broken for the first time in seven years. 'Uptober' combines up and October, and is based on the empirical observation that Bitcoin has generally shown strength each October.

According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin's price fell 3.69% over the month of October. Since 2013, October monthly returns for Bitcoin have been negative only three times: 2014 (-12.95%), 2018 (-3.83%), and this year. Crypto media outlets said, "'Red October' (a down October) is a very rare occurrence."

Bitcoin was showing a strong upward trend, hitting record highs day after day until early last month. This was because, amid a U.S. federal government shutdown in which operations were temporarily halted, investors worried about a falling dollar moved funds into Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold', alongside gold (金). However, after hitting an all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, the price began to retreat.

A few days later, the market also experienced a 'dark chapter' — the largest liquidation in crypto market history. On October 10, $19,156,000,000 (about 27.4 trillion won) in positions were forcibly liquidated in the crypto futures market, and as a result Bitcoin's price was pushed down to around $104,000. Adam McCarthy, a senior researcher at Kaiko, pointed out, "It was an example showing that the range of investable asset classes is very narrow," and noted, "Even Bitcoin and Ethereum can plunge 10% in 15–20 minutes."

Crypto media outlets reported, "Market analysts are divided on whether this October weakness is a precursor to a larger correction or just a breather before a rebound."

Some worry about further declines, pointing out that in November following the 2018 break of the Uptober pattern the return reached '-36.57%'. Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), has also taken a cautious stance on cutting rates in December, which is cited as a liquidity concern.

On the other hand, some are confident of a rebound, citing that Bitcoin's historical average November return was '42.51%'. They argue that if history repeats, Bitcoin could theoretically surpass $160,000 by the end of this month.

In the investment world, 'it used to be like this' does not guarantee 'it will be like this again,' but people pick favorable parts of past data and spin hopeful narratives according to their own logic.

Im Hyun-woo reporter tardis@hankyung.com