Wall Street watches whether the shutdown will continue… China inflation data due [New York·Shanghai markets]

U.S. political sphere watched for whether the shutdown will end

U.S. Supreme Court to hold oral arguments on tariffs

Shanghai market may show volatility around inflation data

The biggest issues for the New York market this week (3–7; local time) are whether the U.S. federal government shutdown will continue and the U.S. Supreme Court's hearing on tariffs.

The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its fifth week and is approaching the record 35 days set during Trump's first term. However, neither the Republican nor the Democratic Party appears ready to concede easily.

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the 5th regarding the Trump administration's tariff policy. This oral argument is taking place at the request of President Trump. He is asking the Court to overturn lower-court rulings that found many of the broad tariffs to be unlawful.

Within the U.S. central bank (Fed), opposition to the rate cut implemented at the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is growing. These voices include Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed; Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed; and Jeff Schmidt, president of the Kansas City Fed. This week, speeches by Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are also scheduled on the 3rd, drawing attention.

With economic data releases uncertain due to the shutdown, on the 5th the October ADP nonfarm private employment change will be released. As a privately released indicator, it may be the only measure available to gauge economic conditions.

Next week, the Shanghai market is expected to see increased volatility ahead of major macroeconomic data releases. On the 3rd, October consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) will be released simultaneously. On the 5th, the services purchasing managers' index (PMI) will be published, and on the 7th foreign exchange reserves and external trade (exports and imports) data are scheduled to be released.

The market is particularly focused on China's inflation figures. When CPI and PPI are released, they could indicate whether recent deflationary pressures have eased or whether there are signs of an economic rebound. Depending on the results, investor sentiment could swing significantly.

New York = Park Shin-young, correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com