JH Kim

In the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) industry, prediction markets (Prediction Market) are emerging as a key growth area. On the 25th (local time), according to crypto-focused media Cointelegraph, Crypto.com is pushing to build an internal market-making organization to provide liquidity for prediction markets. According to the outlet, Crypto.com has begun hiring quantitative traders to serve as internal market makers who will buy and sell prediction contracts directly. Crypto.com said the internal market maker will operate under the same rules as external participants and aims to improve market efficiency and liquidity. However, because the exchange would participate both as a platform operator and a trading entity, concerns have been raised about market fairness and potential conflicts of interest. Coinbase is moving to expand prediction markets from a more long-term perspective. Coinbase has agreed to acquire on-chain prediction market startup The Clearing Company, and the deal is expected to be completed in January next year. The Clearing Company team will join Coinbase to support the expansion of prediction market services. Coinbase views prediction markets as a core growth pillar alongside crypto trading, tokenized assets, and stock trading. In a recent report, the company identified prediction markets as a key opportunity toward 2026, saying that increased user participation and changes in the regulatory environment will support demand growth. Moves in traditional finance are also continuing. According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase is considering offering crypto trading services to some institutional clients. This is interpreted as an attempt to expand digital asset exposure into the trading area, beyond existing custody and blockchain payment experiments. Meanwhile, crypto trading firm DWF Labs is expanding its business into physical assets beyond digital assets. DWF Labs said it recently completed a 25-kilogram gold trade as a test of physical commodity trading. The company plans to expand trading targets to silver, platinum, cotton, and others in the future. Markets see an increased possibility that prediction markets will become a new revenue source for the crypto industry, and expect discussions around the role of exchanges and regulatory alignment to accelerate at the same time.

On the 24th (local time), according to the economic breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, emphasized the need to prepare for structural changes that will be triggered by developments in artificial intelligence (AI). At a recent State Council meeting, President Putin said, "The next 10–15 years will be a period in which unprecedented technological transformation will occur due to the rapid development of AI," and that AI will bring systematic changes across society and the economy. He predicted that AI will replace many low-level, simple tasks, but explained that new jobs requiring data analytics capabilities, engineering thinking, and responsibility will instead expand. He also added, "Even as AI develops, collaboration and teamwork among humans will remain an important competitive advantage," saying that uniquely human collective judgment and cooperation will become core values.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov criticized French President Emmanuel Macron, saying he is spreading systems of censorship and surveillance across the European Union (EU). He argued that the EU's digital regulation is damaging freedom of expression. On the 23rd (local time), according to foreign media, Durov said on his social media, "President Macron is trying to silence online critics" and "the EU is becoming a digital concentration camp." He characterized the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA) as effectively a censorship tool. Durov claimed that the DSA was promoted under the influence of Thierry Breton, the former EU Commissioner for the Internal Market, who is known to be a close associate of President Macron. He pointed out that the law imposes excessive content-control responsibilities on platforms, which could, as a result, enable government-led censorship. Durov also warned that additional bills being discussed in the EU could institutionalize large-scale online surveillance. He said such a regulatory environment could seriously threaten individuals' privacy and freedom of expression. Durov cited the recent case in which the EU fined the social media platform X and publicly expressed support for Elon Musk. He argued that the EU is suppressing free expression and pressuring tech companies to strengthen political control. Durov's remarks came amid ongoing debates over the EU's trend toward strengthening digital regulation. Within Europe, there are both positions that regulation is necessary to ensure online safety and counter misinformation, and concerns that excessive regulation could infringe on freedoms.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite index recorded 23,613.31 points, up 0.22% from the previous day on the 25th. The Dow Jones index closed at 48,431.16 points, up 0.60%, and the S&P 500 index closed at 6,932.05 points, up 0.32%.

Attention is focused on whether the U.S. Congress can pass a comprehensive bill governing the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market in 2026. The industry views the probability at about half, while seeing progress in Senate deliberations as a key variable. On the 24th (local time), crypto-focused U.S. media The Block reported that the industry assesses the probability of the bill being enacted in 2026 at 50~60%. The ongoing discussions between Republicans and Democrats are viewed positively, but analysts say many issues remain to be resolved. Kevin Wysocki, Anchorage Digital's head of policy, said, "It is very positive that members of Congress are engaging in active dialogue across party lines," while adding, "Because this is a complex bill that spans banking law, securities law, and commodities law, coordination is not easy." Currently in the Senate, the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee are each drafting virtual asset market structure bills. The Banking Committee's draft divides jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and introduces the concept of 'ancillary assets' to distinguish non-security virtual assets. The Agriculture Committee has proposed a separate bill that would expand the CFTC's authority, and the two bills need to be reconciled. A vote in the Senate Banking Committee that had been discussed for this year was not held, and the committee said negotiations continue with a goal of a markup in early 2026. However, major issues remain, including whether to allow interest payments on stablecoins, how to regulate DeFi, and the dispute over whether the SEC or the CFTC should be the ultimate decision-maker. In addition, President Donald Trump's conflicts of interest regarding virtual asset businesses and vacancies among CFTC commissioners are acting as variables in the negotiations. In particular, the CFTC is likely to play a central role in future virtual asset regulation, but it currently operates under a single-commissioner structure that includes the chairman, which has drawn strong Democratic opposition. Industry sources say the process is complicated because a Senate bill must pass committee and then be reconciled with a House bill. There are also concerns that legislative momentum could weaken if midterm elections, federal budget negotiations, and the possibility of a shutdown coincide. The industry views the first half of next year, especially Q1 and Q2, as the effective key period for legislation. If Senate deliberations do not progress during this period, there is a prospect that the virtual asset market structure bill could again become a long-term issue.

Goldman Sachs expects the early-year strength in tech stocks to continue and presented the so-called 'Fallen Angels' stocks, which have been sharply adjusted from their highs, as promising opportunities. According to foreign media on the 24th (local time), Goldman Sachs' trading division analyzed that with the Nasdaq-100 index having risen about 22% this year, the tech-stock rally could continue into the new year. However, it added that returns are likely to be concentrated early in the year. Goldman Sachs focused on stocks that were previously favored by the market but have now fallen sharply from their highs. It cited Roblox, Visa, Mastercard, and DoorDash as representative examples. These stocks' prices remain at levels well below their historical highs, but fundamentals are assessed as improving. Goldman Sachs analysts explained that each stock's price targets imply meaningful upside from current levels. In particular, it analyzed that recovery in profitability and stabilization of business structures centered on payment and platform companies are acting positively. The trend of tech leadership gradually spreading from some large-cap stocks was also cited as background. Goldman Sachs pointed out, however, that the possibility of macroeconomic risks emerging after 2026 still exists. Nevertheless, it judged that in the short term, undervalued stocks within the tech sector could offer attractive investment opportunities.

An analysis has suggested that Elon Musk, Tesla's chief executive officer (CEO), could have a net worth of 1,000 trillion won even before receiving Tesla's compensation package. On the 24th (local time), according to the business breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg, Musk's net worth is estimated at about 750 billion dollars. This amounts to about 3% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), surpassing the level when John D. Rockefeller accounted for about 2% of U.S. GDP at his peak. The core of Musk's assets is the space company SpaceX. SpaceX was recently valued at about 800 billion dollars, and it was explained that expectations for the Starlink satellite internet business and the potential use of artificial intelligence (AI) were reflected. Musk holds about 40% of SpaceX's shares. Barron's analyzed that if SpaceX goes public (IPO), Musk's assets could increase by several hundred billion dollars or more. In that case, Musk's net worth could reach 1 trillion dollars even without reflecting Tesla's next compensation package. Tesla's compensation plan has not yet been finalized. The market is noting that the rise in SpaceX's value is increasingly taking up a larger share of Musk's personal asset structure.

The three major U.S. stock indexes are showing mixed trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index was trading at 23,559.17 points at 00:38 on the 25th, down 0.01% from the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.34% at 48,608.37 points, and the S&P 500 was up 0.15% at 6,920.43 points.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly recovered to the $87,000 level. BTC is trading at $87,015.03 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market as of 00:11 on the 25th, down 0.10% from the previous day.

The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite index was 23,561.84 points on the 24th, up 0.57% from the previous day. The Dow Jones index closed at 48,442.01 points, up 0.16%, and the S&P 500 index closed at 6,905 points, up 0.39%.

President Donald Trump expressed an optimistic view on the inflation outlook. On the 23rd (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg, President Trump said, "Inflation will resolve itself," dismissing concerns about rising prices. Trump's remarks have attracted attention in connection with the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s recent interest rate policy. He has repeatedly demanded monetary easing, saying the Fed has been behind in cutting interest rates. U.S. inflation has recently shown a slowing trend, but the Fed is still maintaining a cautious policy stance to achieve the target of 2%. Some Fed officials maintain the view that price pressures have not been completely resolved. Markets do not rule out the possibility that Trump's remarks could lead to political pressure on the selection of the next Fed chair and the future direction of monetary policy. Trump has publicly stated that he prefers candidates for the next Fed chair who agree with his policy stance.

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a strong position on the selection criteria for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair and the direction of monetary policy. On the 23rd (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg, President Trump said, "Anyone who disagrees with me can never be Fed chair," and "The next Fed chair must agree with my policy direction." President Trump also set a clear condition regarding interest rate policy. He said, "If the market is doing well, the new Fed chair must lower interest rates." This is interpreted as a continuation of President Trump's ongoing criticism of the tight monetary policy stance of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has in the past also argued that high interest rates impede economic growth. Markets view Trump's remarks as both re-highlighting concerns about the Fed's independence and suggesting that the process for selecting the next chair could directly affect expectations for monetary policy. Candidates for the next Fed chair mentioned include Fed Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and attention is focused on how Trump's public remarks might affect the selection process.

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), positively evaluated the recently released gross domestic product (GDP) figures and emphasized the U.S. economy's solid momentum. On the 23rd (local time), according to economic breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg, Hassett said, "This GDP figure is a great Christmas gift for the American people," adding that "the fundamentals across the economy are still strong." He forecast that if the GDP growth rate remains at around 4%, the labor market could also maintain a stable trend. Hassett said, "If the growth rate stays in the 4% range, monthly job gains will return to the level of 100,000–150,000." He expressed a critical view of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. He said, "The U.S. Fed is still behind market trends in terms of interest rate cuts," and "policy responses need to be more proactive." Hassett also mentioned the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the U.S. economy. He explained, "Productivity improvements from AI are clearly appearing across U.S. economic indicators," and "this productivity boom is becoming an important driver of medium- to long-term growth."

A startup founded by former FTX US head Brett Harrison that aims to build a perpetual futures exchange for traditional assets has raised $35 million. On the 23rd (local time), according to crypto-focused media The Block, the startup Architect Financial Technologies (AX), led by Brett Harrison, recently closed a $35 million funding round. AX aims to apply exchange design methods used in the crypto asset (cryptocurrency) market to traditional financial assets such as stocks and foreign exchange. In particular, it is focused on introducing the perpetual futures (perpetual futures) structure to the traditional asset market to enable 24-hour trading and an efficient margin structure. Brett Harrison was involved in exchange infrastructure and market structure design during his tenure as head of FTX US, and after the collapse of FTX he has pursued a new exchange model that combines traditional finance and crypto market structures. AX aims to work with regulators to offer perpetual futures trading within the traditional financial regulatory framework. The company believes that technologies and liquidity management structures proven in the crypto market can also be applied to traditional asset markets. The market is paying attention to this funding round as it could lead to trading structures developed in the crypto market expanding into traditional finance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has secured the support of the EU Council regarding the setting of a holding limit for the digital euro. On the 23rd (local time), according to virtual asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media CoinDesk, the EU Council expressed support for the introduction of the digital euro itself while stressing that, for financial system stability, there should be a cap on the total amount of digital euro an individual can hold. The Council made clear that a limit is particularly needed on the combined amount of digital euro that can be held simultaneously in online accounts and digital wallets. This is interpreted as a measure to prevent large outflows of bank deposits and to protect existing financial intermediation functions. The ECB has maintained that the digital euro should function as a digital complement to cash and that it is undesirable for it to be used excessively as a deposit substitute. Setting a holding limit is a mechanism to institutionally reflect this policy stance. The specific level of the holding limit for the digital euro has not been decided and will be determined through the legislative process and technical review going forward. In addition to the holding limit, the ECB is discussing key issues such as the level of anonymity, offline payment functionality, and the division of roles with commercial banks. The digital euro can only be officially launched once EU-level legislation is completed. The EU Council's support is seen as a sign that discussions on the introduction of the digital euro are entering an institutional stage.

On the 23rd (local time), according to overseas economic news channel Walter Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s price stability goal needs to be reconsidered as a range-based target rather than the existing single 2% target. Secretary Bessent noted that as inflation gradually stabilizes downward toward the 2% level, the monetary policy framework could also be adjusted. He proposed setting the inflation target in a range of 1.52.5% or 13%. In recent remarks, Secretary Bessent said, "If inflation expectations become stably anchored again, the Fed should consider a range-based target rather than a fixed figure." He assessed that it is time for the Fed to reexamine its policy framework amid the downward trend in inflation. Furthermore, Secretary Bessent noted that American households have borne a significant burden from high prices in recent years. He emphasized that "public dissatisfaction over rising living costs is evident," and that price stability remains a central policy task. The Fed currently maintains a 2% inflation rate as its medium- to long-term goal, and that target is used as a key criterion for monetary policy decisions. However, introducing a range-based target has attracted market interest because it could increase policy flexibility going forward. Secretary Bessent's remarks suggest that discussions about the Fed's policy operation methods and target setting could intensify after the inflation stabilization phase.

The three major U.S. stock indices are showing gains. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 23,433.89 points at 00:26 on the 24th, up 0.02% from the previous day. The Dow Jones index was up 0.07% at 48,397.99 points, and the S&P 500 index was up 0.03% at 6,880.75 points.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.52% from the previous session on the 23rd to 23,428.83 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.47% at 48,362.68 points, and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.56% at 6,872.78 points.