JH Kim

The fallout from the war in Iran is leaving Chinese zinc smelters facing a shortage of raw material supplies. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 13th (local time), exports of zinc feedstock bound for China from Iran have been halted, disrupting smelters’ ability to secure raw materials. The squeeze is intensifying as delays in supply from Russia’s Ozernoye mine add to the disruption. Iran and Russia are key suppliers, accounting for about 15% of China’s zinc feedstock supply. Supplies are contracting even faster as the Port of Bandar Abbas near the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and cargoes originating from Oman have also been canceled. As a result, Chinese companies are said to be seeking alternative sources to secure volumes for May–June. The industry says the conflict could also trigger knock-on upward price pressures across other commodity markets, including aluminum, nickel, copper and fertilizers.

Global investment bank Barclays (BARCLAYS) has pushed back its forecast for when the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates, significantly later than previously expected. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 13th (local time), Barclays expects the Fed to cut rates twice—by 25bp (0.25 percentage points) each—in September 2026 and March 2027. This marks a sharp retreat from its earlier expectation of rate cuts in June and September this year. Barclays said that, given inflation and economic conditions, the Fed is likely to keep rates elevated for the time being.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the timing of the end of the war with Iran depends on his judgment. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 13th (local time), Trump said in an interview on The Brian Kilmeade Show, when asked when the conflict with Iran would end, that "the war will end when I feel in my bones that it's over." He noted that the war may not last longer than expected, but did not specify an end date. The United States and Israel have continued military operations targeting Iranian military facilities since Feb. 28, and Trump has recently assessed that the operation is proceeding faster than planned.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. On the 13th, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.78% from the previous session to 22,311.98 points. The Dow Jones index fell 1.56% to 46,677.85 points, and the S&P 500 index ended down 1.52% at 6,672.77.

Concerns have emerged that the timeline for discussions on the CLARITY Act, a US Senate bill to regulate virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), could be delayed. On 12 (local time), Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto in America, said via X (formerly Twitter) that Senate Republican Leader John Thune stated it would be difficult for the bill to pass the Senate Banking Committee before April. The CLARITY Act is designed to overhaul the regulatory framework for the virtual-asset market, and includes provisions to clarify oversight authority for digital assets. The remarks are interpreted as suggesting the bill’s legislative review schedule could slip beyond expectations.

The Israeli military said it has launched a large-scale offensive operation targeting Tehran, the capital of Iran. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 12th (local time), the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that it had begun an "extensive offensive operation" against Tehran. The Israeli military explained that the attack is an operation aimed at military-related targets inside Iran. The airstrikes are reported to have been carried out as the military confrontation between Israel and Iran has recently escalated.

U.S. President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates immediately. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 12th (local time), President Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, arguing that the Fed should cut rates right away rather than wait until the next monetary policy meeting. He pointed to Powell, saying the decision to cut rates is being delayed. The remarks are interpreted as coming amid continuing tensions between politicians and the central bank over the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

All three major U.S. stock indexes are trading lower. As of 04:01 on the 13th, the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.57% from the previous session at 22,360.52 points. The Dow Jones index is down 1.41% at 46,747.88 points, while the S&P 500 index is down 1.35% at 6,684.05.

An Iranian security official said the ongoing military conflict is unlikely to end in the short term. On the 12th (local time), according to Walter Bloomberg, the official said, "The war will not end anytime soon." The remarks run counter to comments by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump had previously said, "The war with Iran will end soon," adding, "If I wanted to end it, I could end it at any time." The comments are interpreted as signaling the possibility of a prolonged conflict, as military tensions between the United States and Iran persist.

An analysis says that as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, the key factors determining Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility are shifting from macroeconomic indicators to geopolitical variables. According to DL News, a media outlet specializing in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), on the 12th (local time), James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the influence of traditional macro data such as interest-rate expectations and employment indicators has recently weakened. He said, "Instead, geopolitical risk is emerging as a new key variable," adding that "the deepening conflict among the United States, Israel and Iran is acting as a tailwind for Bitcoin, and some investors are choosing Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty." In fact, since the dispute between the United States and Iran began, Bitcoin has risen about 6%, while gold prices have gained only about 1%. Over the same period, global stock markets were on a downtrend, showing moves that differed from traditional risk-asset patterns, the analysis said.

The US Senate passed housing-related legislation that includes a provision prohibiting the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 12th (local time), the bill cleared the Senate with an overwhelming vote. However, its prospects in the House remain uncertain. The legislation includes a clause preventing the Federal Reserve (Fed) from issuing a CBDC or an equivalent digital asset until at least the end of 2030. It also stipulates restrictions on issuing a CBDC indirectly through financial institutions or intermediaries. Republican lawmakers have opposed the introduction of a government-led digital dollar. The US is currently still in the research phase regarding a CBDC.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released guidance on prediction markets and launched the process to establish formal rules. According to CoinDesk, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) trade publication, on the 12th (local time) the CFTC described prediction-market platforms as “verified sources that provide reliable information to news outlets, sports leagues, financial institutions, and ordinary Americans.” The recommendations include how digital commodity merchants (DCMs) such as Kalshi, Coinbase, and Polymarket obtained regulatory approval for listed products. The document also stipulates that these platforms should handle only trading contracts with low susceptibility to manipulation. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said, “This action marks the start of a new rulemaking process based on a reasonable and consistent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act,” adding that it “also makes clear to Americans that the CFTC will exercise exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.” However, the rules are expected to take several months before they are implemented, and the CFTC is currently soliciting public feedback on the direction of the regulation.

A warning has been issued that Iran may be laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. On 12 (local time), according to Walter Bloomberg, UK Defence Secretary John Healey said Iran may be deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz despite US warnings. He noted that such moves could pose a major risk to both commercial vessels and warships. He added that in a combat situation, mine-clearing operations are extremely difficult, which could significantly undermine maritime navigational safety. Healey stressed that the most realistic way to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is to ease military tensions.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to temporarily suspend the application of the Jones Act to stabilize oil prices. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 12th (local time), the Trump administration is considering measures to ease maritime shipping regulations as upward pressure on oil prices has recently intensified. The Jones Act is a law that stipulates that cargo transport between U.S. ports may be carried out only by ships built in the United States and flying the U.S. flag. The law has been cited as a factor that raises maritime shipping costs. The administration believes that if the regulation is temporarily suspended, crude oil and energy transportation costs could fall, producing a short-term stabilizing effect on oil prices.

The three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session mixed. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.08% from the previous day on the 12th to 22,716.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61% to 47,417.27, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.09% to 6,775.17 at the close.

Iran said whether a ceasefire is possible depends on whether the United States and Israel commit to refraining from any additional attacks going forward. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 11th (local time), Iranian authorities argued that a ceasefire would require assurances that the U.S. and Israel will not resume military strikes in the future. Tehran’s position is that a mere declaration of a ceasefire is insufficient and must be preceded by a pledge that no further attacks will occur. The remarks are seen as laying out negotiating conditions as U.S. and Israeli military operations continue.

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has reportedly issued a warning to California law enforcement that Iran could be capable of carrying out drone attacks along the U.S. West Coast. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 11th (local time), the FBI cautioned that Iran may be preparing drone attacks targeting California in retaliation for U.S. military strikes. Authorities said Iran may have considered launching unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from vessels offshore near the U.S. West Coast to conduct surprise attacks on specific targets in California. However, the timing of any attack and the intended targets have not yet been confirmed. The FBI also said the drone threat from Mexican drug cartels is increasing, and expressed concern about the possibility of attacks targeting U.S. troops and law enforcement agencies near the southern U.S. border.

The three major U.S. stock indexes are trading lower. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.10% from the previous session at 22,674.46 points as of 03:46 on the 12th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.74% at 47,354.93, while the S&P 500 was off 0.25% at 6,764.57.

The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is moving to clarify rules that exclude stablecoins from coverage under deposit insurance. According to crypto-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 11th (local time), FDIC Chair Travis Hill said that under the GENIUS Act, holders of payment stablecoins are not eligible for deposit insurance protection. He said, "I plan to propose a new rulemaking to clarify that payment stablecoins subject to the GENIUS Act are excluded from insurance coverage." He added, "While the GENIUS Act does not explicitly prohibit this, I believe this interpretation aligns with the intent of the law," and said, "Deposit insurance provided via third-party institutions would also not be permitted."