Son Min

The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) Fear and Greed Index rose by 1 point compared to the previous day, showing a slight improvement in investor sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is a measure of market sentiment: values closer to 0 indicate extreme fear, while values closer to 100 indicate extreme greed. On the 21st (local time), the Fear and Greed Index provided by virtual asset analytics company Alternative stood at 49 out of 100, maintaining the 'neutral' stage. The index rose 1 point from the previous day (48 points), showing a slight recovery in market sentiment. The index is calculated based on volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin market cap dominance (10%), and Google search volume (10%), among others.

NH "This week's KOSPI 3200~3500" outlook Securities firms expect profit-taking pressure to intensify in the domestic market, which has surged in the short term this week (22–26). However, they analyze that the effects of a renewed start to U.S. interest rate cuts and expectations of benefits from government policies will remain valid. They advise that if leading sectors with high earnings contribution, such as semiconductors and shipbuilding, face corrections, these should be seen as buying opportunities. On the 21st, according to the financial investment industry, NH Investment & Securities presented a forecast range for this week's KOSPI index of 3200–3500. Compared with the previous week's last trading day's closing price (3445.24), the maximum upside is only about 1.59%. With the KOSPI jumping 8.14% this month alone to set a new record high, investors' desire to realize profits has grown, the analysis said. Analyst Na Jung-hwan at the securities firm said, "Given the recent sharp rise in the KOSPI, there are concerns about profit-taking." Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, "Through last week's KOSPI upward momentum, the bullish pressure for the second half has been confirmed," but also diagnosed that "risk management due to the short-term surge is also necessary." He added, "The forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of the current KOSPI is 11.27 times, exceeding last year's peak (11.14 times)," and judged that "it is necessary to refrain from chasing purchases above the 3400 level." However, expectations arising from the start of U.S. central bank (Fed) rate cuts are expected to continue. Recently, foreign investors' funds flowed massively into the domestic market, driving the index up, but the share in the KOSPI remains at around the 33% level, not reaching pre-COVID-19 levels (35–39%). Government policy expectations are also expected to continue. Earlier, the government held a core regulation rationalization strategy meeting on the 15th to discuss easing regulations that hinder the growth of new industries such as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving, and robots. Accordingly, in the future, the use of original video data in the autonomous driving field will be allowed and demonstration regions will be expanded. In the robotics industry, existing regulations on application areas such as parking and construction will be reorganized. The securities industry expects this to have a positive effect on the stock price movements of new industry-related stocks such as AI software, autonomous driving, and robots. Analyst Na said, "With rate cuts and domestic policy momentum, the market could continue a gradual upward trend into next year," and pointed out, "Growth stocks such as healthcare and software, which have risen less in the domestic market, may receive relatively more attention." Expectations for improved Korea-China relations are also expected to play a role. Analyst Na said, "Expectations for improved Korea-China relations will expand ahead of the possibility of President Xi Jinping's attendance at the Gyeongju APEC meeting and the resumption of visa-free entry for Chinese tourists," and added, "Accordingly, hotels, casinos, and cosmetics sectors will stand out as beneficiaries of inbound travel." Also attracting market attention is the earnings announcement of the 'semiconductor barometer' Micron Technology scheduled for the 23rd. Lee Kyung-min emphasized, "As expectations for improvement in AI infrastructure and general-purpose semiconductors have risen, it is necessary to confirm from Micron's results and guidance whether market expectations and momentum will continue." In this situation, advice has emerged to pay attention to sectors that have been relatively sidelined in the recent rally. Lee said, "A trading strategy centered on automobiles, internet, pharmaceuticals & biotech, and secondary batteries, which remain undervalued and relatively overlooked, will be effective," and noted, "Leading sectors with high earnings contribution in the second half, such as semiconductors and shipbuilding, will present buying opportunities on corrections." Jung-Sam Ko, Hankyung.com reporter jsk@hankyung.com

Pace of rate cuts may be decided by the August PCE indicator Concerns over a federal government shutdown are also a market risk This week, the New York stock market is expected to focus on key inflation indicators and public remarks by officials of the U.S. central bank (Fed). At the regular Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 17th–18th, the Fed cut the policy rate by 0.25% point and signaled two additional rate cuts this year. The cut was a 'risk management' measure related to the fact that, while the economy has not entered a recession, employment is cooling rapidly. However, depending on how the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, scheduled for release on the 26th, comes out, the pace of rate cuts could change. Chairman Jerome Powell said at the post-FOMC press conference that inflation from tariffs would be temporary, but if the PCE inflation rate comes out higher than expected, it is highly likely to put the brakes on this outlook. According to a FactSet survey, the August PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the previous month's 0.2% increase. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month. The prior month's figure was also a 0.3% increase. Along with inflation indicators, public remarks by key Fed officials are also expected to draw market attention. With the FOMC meeting concluded, key Fed officials will explain their respective views on the future rate path. The number of votes against rate cuts at last week's meeting was smaller than the market had expected. Meanwhile, Wall Street is also concerned about the possibility of a federal government shutdown. The U.S. Congress failed on the 19th to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to prevent a temporary shutdown of the federal government. This was because the CR passed by the House was rejected in the Senate. Congress will go into recess for a week starting that afternoon, and if this schedule is maintained, there will be little time left after returning to prevent a shutdown. New York=Park Shin-young, correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com

US-based decentralized prediction platform Kalshi's weekly trading volume surpassed Polymarket's. On the 21st (local time), CoinDesk reported that last week Kalshi's weekly trading volume exceeded $500 million, accounting for 62% of global prediction market trading. During the same period, Polymarket's trading volume was $430 million. Open interest also exceeded Polymarket's. Last week Kalshi's average open interest was $189 million, surpassing Polymarket ($164 million). The outlet said, "Despite Polymarket's recent entry into the US, Kalshi is showing an advantage in the market platform competition."

As the confirmation of Brian Quintenz, nominee for chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has been delayed, the White House is reportedly searching for new candidates. Quintenz has faced hurdles in the confirmation process since being nominated in February. On the 19th (local time), Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said, "Quintenz's confirmation has been delayed, and the White House is reviewing a new CFTC chair." Those under consideration are reported to include figures friendly to virtual assets (cryptocurrencies). Under the rules, the CFTC should have five commissioners in office. However, currently only one commissioner, Caroline Pham, is serving as acting chair.

Claims have emerged that virtual asset (cryptocurrency) hoarding companies must go through a bear market (crypto winter) to grow. On the 19th (local time), according to UBlockchain, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao said through 'Bitcoin Asia 2025', "The strategy, after taking losses in the first bear market, lowered the average purchase price through continuous operations," adding, "Virtual asset companies must go through at least one bear market to achieve true growth." He went on to point out, "(Currently) some virtual asset companies are high risk," and said, "They prop up their stock prices by hoarding assets but lack operational capability and portfolio management."

Nubank, the largest digital bank in South America, plans to support dollar stablecoin payments. On the 19th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Nubank said it plans to begin testing dollar stablecoin payments via credit card. It is also reported that support for tokenized deposits and the launch of loan products based on them are being discussed. Roberto Campos Neto, Nubank's vice chairman, said, "According to the data, South American consumers are buying crypto assets to store value," adding, "Attempts to connect digital assets with banking services are important."

The trading volume of U.S.-based decentralized prediction platform Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket. On the 19th (local time), The Block reported that Kalshi's September trading volume was $1.3 billion, far exceeding competitor Polymarket ($773 million). It is the first time Kalshi's monthly trading volume has surpassed $1 billion since the U.S. election in November last year. The outlet said, "Kalshi's performance in recent months shows that the platform's popularity is increasing." Meanwhile, Kalshi currently accounts for 62.5% of global prediction market platform trading volume.

The altcoin season index provided by CoinMarketCap, a crypto market tracking site, has reached 77. On the 19th (local time), CoinMarketCap said the 'altcoin season index' recorded 77 points, unchanged from the previous day. CoinMarketCap classifies an altcoin season starting at 75 points. Altcoin market capitalization also reached $1.77 trillion, increasing by $10 billion from the previous day. The altcoin season index is determined by comparing price changes between the top 100 coins by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins and wrapped coins) and Bitcoin (BTC). The one-year high was 87 points, recorded on December 4 last year.

The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) Fear and Greed Index rose by 1 point compared to the previous day, showing an increase in investor sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is an indicator that expresses market sentiment; values closer to 0 indicate extreme fear, while values closer to 100 indicate extreme greed. On the 19th (local time), the Fear and Greed Index provided by virtual asset analytics firm Alternative is currently 53 out of a 100-point scale, maintaining the 'Neutral' stage. The index rose by 1 point from the previous day (52 points), showing a slight contraction in market atmosphere. The Fear and Greed Index is calculated based on volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin market cap dominance (10%), Google search volume (10%), and others.

The virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) Fear & Greed Index fell by 1 point from the previous day, showing a slight decline in investor sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is an indicator of market sentiment, where values closer to 0 indicate extreme fear and values closer to 100 indicate extreme greed. On the 18th (local time), the Fear & Greed Index provided by virtual asset analytics firm Alternative remained at 52 out of 100, maintaining the 'neutral' stage. The index fell 1 point from the previous day (53 points), showing a slightly subdued market mood. The Fear & Greed Index is calculated based on volatility(25%), trading volume(25%), social media(15%), surveys(15%), Bitcoin market cap dominance(10%), and Google search volume(10%).

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) virtual asset (cryptocurrency) task force (TF) is traveling nationwide to pursue meetings with industry stakeholders. On the 17th (local time), the SEC said on its official X (formerly Twitter), "The SEC virtual asset task force is coordinating a schedule for virtual asset industry stakeholders to meet with Commissioner Hester Peirce and her team." Earlier, the SEC had said the virtual asset task force plans to hold roundtable meetings across the United States. These meetings are intended to actively solicit the opinions of stakeholders who have been relatively marginalized in the virtual asset policy decision-making process. In particular, participation from small projects that have been established for less than two years or have 10 or fewer employees is expected. The SEC plans to disclose a list of projects participating in the meetings at a later date. However, it made clear that a project's attendance does not imply endorsement of that project or its affiliates.