U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing investments in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) through retirement pensions (401K), spreading expectations for a market rebound after a bearish turn at the beginning of August. Traditionally, August is a seasonally bearish period, but this month there are projections that the trend could shift. The leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH), as of August 8th, 15:18, is trading at $3,908 (₩5,384,000 on Upbit), up 7.29% from the previous day in the Binance Tether (USDT) market. The ETH/BTC ratio has also risen to 0.03353, maintaining its upward trend. Meanwhile, major altcoins have been attempting limited rebounds after ending their decline, but significant supply-demand improvement has not yet been observed. The market notes that selling pressure has somewhat eased, but additional capital inflows are likely needed for a sustained reversal. On this day, Bitcoin dominance (BTC Dominance, the share of Bitcoin in the overall virtual asset market capitalization) stood at 60.853%, having decreased by about 1.7%p since August 2. As Bitcoin's price has risen, this slight drop in dominance is interpreted as some capital rotating from Bitcoin to altcoins. ETF inflows & whale accumulation, Ethereum expected to break $4,000 On the 7th (local time), President Trump signed an executive order permitting investments in alternative assets, including virtual assets, private funds, and real estate, through retirement pensions (401k). Accordingly, the U.S. Department of Labor will, within six months, re-examine the definition of eligible assets for 401k and its management guidelines, including alternative assets. If necessary, the Department of Labor may consult with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Treasury Department, among others, to comprehensively review the relevant internal regulations and guidelines on allowing alternative assets. As the scale of 401k funds—operated through automatic payroll deductions each month—reaches about $9 trillion (₩12,465 trillion), such institutional changes could result in large-scale capital inflows into alternative assets, including virtual assets. In particular, Ethereum has seen its rally accelerate further since the mid-July passage of the U.S. stablecoin regulation bill, the GENUIS Act. As major stablecoins like USDC are issued on the Ethereum network, this has positively contributed to trust in the ecosystem. Additionally, the increase in companies such as Sharplink Gaming and Bitmine accumulating Ethereum as a strategic asset is also considered favorable. The on-chain data analysis platform Swissblock recently stated in a research report, "Ethereum recorded the strongest net inflow since ETF approval in July, showing a significant rebound," and "ETH surged nearly 50% last month, rising to 25th place in global market capitalization and surpassing P&G, Bank of America, and Samsung Electronics." There have also been observations that whales have been steadily accumulating Ethereum. On-chain analytics firm Santiment recently mentioned via a YouTube broadcast, "Over the past three weeks, about 0.5% of the total Ethereum supply has been added to whale wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH," explaining that "this is the result of whales absorbing the ETH sold by individual investors taking profits." As of the 1st, the total Ethereum held in these wallets increased by about 3.87 million ETH over three months, reaching 118.66 million ETH. Analysts see Ethereum continuing its upward trend over the mid-to-long term. Aayush Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, analyzed, "Ethereum saw short-term price corrections as profit-taking occurred, but the drop was limited," noting, "Resistance levels for further gains are located at $3,820, $4,000, and $4,120, respectively." He also estimated that support levels for declines are around $3,620~$3,580 and $3,540~$3,440. Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, said, "Investors are maintaining positions in anticipation of further gains," and projected, "If the resistance at $3,745 is breached, moves to $3,941 and possibly to $4,094 are possible." Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen predicted, "Ethereum may form a higher bottom in September and possibly reach new highs by December." "Altcoins: expectations and concerns coexist… Decrease in trading volume & investor wait-and-see mood" Market experts diagnosed that, after a short-term correction, the altcoin market has entered a phase of searching for a bottom. The derivatives market is also continuing a wait-and-see approach without clear directionality. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FXPro, commented, "August is seasonally one of the worst months for Bitcoin. Altcoins are also being tested," adding, "The crypto fear and greed index has dropped to 53, recording a six-week low. The sell-off that started at the end of last month is weighing down the market, while the market is waiting for growth momentum and external catalysts to time its rebound." Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also noted on his YouTube channel, "Altcoins experienced brief attention, but a sustained 'alt season' supported by continuous capital inflows and upward movement has yet to appear," observing, "Recently, even Ethereum has been absorbing capital from the (small and mid-sized) altcoin market." He added, "For now, investors are recommended to focus on preserving assets rather than seeking excessive profits." There is also an opinion that the altcoin market is still under the influence of Bitcoin. Crypto strategist Michael van de Poppe observed, "The altcoin market has been in a prolonged sideways phase for the past 12 months, and many investors have become psychologically frustrated due to portfolio returns," analyzing, "Although altcoin volatility has increased recently, a clear upward trend is yet to be seen." He projected, "If Bitcoin dominance (its share in the market) remains high and Bitcoin stably holds the $115,000 level, altcoins could also continue to rebound going forward." There is also an analysis that the recent decrease in trading volume could increase market caution regarding the continuity of the rally. Crypto analytics firm Matrixport stated in its research report, "Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached a record high of $3.85 trillion at the end of July, but daily trading volume dropped significantly to $178 billion compared to the beginning of the year," adding, "With August lacking special catalysts, the market could enter a phase of short-term correction or move sideways." Some argue that the recent increase in stablecoin issuance may contribute to long-term upward momentum. On-chain analytics firm Santiment recently highlighted via YouTube, "USDT stablecoin issuance increased 6.5% over ten days to $83.24 billion," analyzing, "A large portion of the issued coins have flowed into whale wallets, fueling expectations of further accumulation." Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io
August 8PiCK