Trump 2nd Term, Expectations for Pro-Crypto Policies Rising "AI Agents, Bitcoin DeFi, DePIN, DeSci in the Spotlight" Overall Crypto Market, Trading Volume Declining Long-term Bullish Sentiment Continues As the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump approaches in a week, the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market is showing short-term weakness. However, long-term optimism persists due to expectations that the U.S. will pursue pro-crypto policies. Experts believe that fields such as DeFAI (DeFi+AI, AI DeFi investment), Bitcoin DeFi, DePIN, and DeSci have high growth potential this year. The leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH), is trading at $3,163 on the Binance USDT market as of 6:40 PM on the 13th, down 2.18% from the previous day (477,600 KRW on Upbit). Many altcoins have shown double-digit declines over the past week, giving up much of this year's gains. At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization of virtual assets) is rising, reaching 58.41% from 56.78% on the 5th. The rise in dominance as Bitcoin prices fall suggests that the altcoin market may soon weaken. "Bitcoin Surged 120% Last Year, Attracting Funds... Bitcoin DeFi Also Expected to Grow Rapidly" First, there is an analysis that the rapid rise of Bitcoin has increased the likelihood of significant growth in Bitcoin-based decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. Recently, Forbes Digital Assets predicted that "Bitcoin DeFi will be a major growth driver in the cryptocurrency market by 2025." In particular, the Bitcoin restaking platform Babylon Labs is gaining popularity by raising about 57,000 BTC. Several projects, including Babylon Labs, are set to issue tokens (TGE) within the first quarter, drawing more attention. Additionally, Fractal Bitcoin (FB) has processed over 1 billion cumulative transactions, and the total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin DeFi projects like Bitlayer (BTR), BoB, and Mezo is also growing significantly. Web3 consulting firm Dispread stated, "In the Bitcoin ecosystem, restaking projects like Babylon, Lombard, Solv, Pstake, and Bedrock are gaining popularity," adding, "In the long term, as service accessibility improves, the Runes and Ordinals (ORDI) ecosystems will gain renewed attention." Meanwhile, restaking refers to the investment method where investors stake their staked Bitcoin again. Runes is a platform that helps users issue their own tokens (BRC-20) on the Bitcoin blockchain. Ordinals helps issue non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the Bitcoin blockchain. "Complex DeFi, Now AI Generates Profits... DeFAI on the Rise" Recently, DeFAI (DeFi+AI, AI DeFi investment) projects utilizing 'AI agents' for DeFi investment are on the rise. An 'AI agent' is an AI system that performs various tasks autonomously without human intervention. AI agents assist in managing investors' DeFi portfolios, staking, and liquidity. For example, if a user commands, 'Invest a total of $500 in the liquidity pool offering the best interest rate currently,' the AI agent executes it. Representative DeFAI projects include ai16z (AI16Z), Velvet Unicorn (VU), and the representative AI agent aixbt (AIXBT) of Virtual Protocol (VIRTUAL). Cryptocurrency analyst Hitesh stated, "The market cap of DeFAI is currently below $1 billion but is expected to grow to $10 billion within the next few months." "DePIN Reducing Infrastructure Costs, Expected to Grow 100-1000 Times Over the Next Decade" Decentralized physical infrastructure projects (DePIN) are also expected to show rapid growth. DePIN is evaluated as being able to significantly reduce various infrastructure costs using Web3 technology. Cryptocurrency analysis firm Messari recently reported, "The final market size of DePIN is expected to approach $1 trillion, but currently, it occupies less than 0.1% of the future market value," analyzing that "DePIN is just beginning, with the potential to grow 100 to 1000 times over the next decade." According to the report, there were over 350 projects in the DePIN market as of last year, with a market cap of about $50 billion. Messari analyzed that Helium (HNT), Dawn Protocol (DAWN), Filecoin (FIL), Io.net (IO), Daylight (GRID), Glow (GLOW), Worldcoin (WLD), and Animal (ANML) are leading the growth of DePIN. Dispread predicted, "In the DePIN field, models that collect meaningful data through sensors and integrate it with token economics, such as Hivemapper (HONEY), will be promising," adding, "'Open hardware' DePIN projects, where users provide idle resources like mobile, PC, and graphics cards and receive rewards, will grow further." "Emerging Field 'DeSci' Attracting Industry Leaders' Attention... Launching Its Own Tokens" Recently, the decentralized science (DeSci) field is also gaining attention. DeSci refers to projects that support funding, research creation, and data sharing in scientific research using Web3 technologies like tokenization. According to the AI-based Web3 search platform Kaito, interest in DeSci has surged 2600% this year. Previously, crypto leaders like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao have highly evaluated the potential of the DeSci field. First, Bio Protocol (BIO) is a DeSci project focused on biological research. Bio Protocol currently operates seven bio decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). This year, more related research on COVID-19, rare diseases, etc., will be added. Recently, Bio Protocol has launched several proprietary intellectual property (IP) tokens, including Alzheimer's (CLAW), Hemp Fiber (HEPY), Ovarian Aging (OVARIA), and Cryopreservation (CRYORAT). These tokens can be traded on platforms like Bio Launchpad and CoW Swap. Additionally, the decentralized scientific research platform ResearchHub, funded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, is also gaining attention. ResearchHub has introduced reward mechanisms for publishing, reviewing, and discussing researchers' papers through ResearchCoin (RSC). Recently, ResearchHub announced plans to collaborate with AI agents. Analyst Lucas Rupert Malmstrom stated, "The number of DeSci tokens is currently very small, and the DeSci tokens that will become large blue chips are limited," adding, "The initial bio DAO tokens, which are the original, have a high potential for significant growth in the future." Family Office, which provides financial management services to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, is investing in seven bio DAO tokens, as well as VitaDAO (VITA), Aethir (ATH), Grow (GROW), and Neuron (NEURON). Last Year's 'Worst Performance' for Ethereum Layer 2... This Year's Outlook Last year, the weakness of Ethereum Layer 2 projects was prominent. Sui (SUI) and Solana (SOL) emerged as 'Ethereum killers,' attracting funds to these DeFi (decentralized finance) networks, and competing projects like Hyperliquid (HYPE) were highly successful. Layer 2 refers to networks that implement devices to process data outside the blockchain, reducing fees and increasing processing speed. In fact, Arbitrum (ARB), the number one Ethereum Layer 2 network by market share, fell 54% last year. Also, Blast (BLAST), which attracted significant attention by paying interest just for holding assets on the Layer 2 network, plummeted 85% last year. Polygon (MATIC) fell 54%, and Optimism (OP) also fell 53%. On the other hand, this year, DeFi based on 'Base,' a Layer 2 network launched by Coinbase, is expected to grow. A Dispread representative stated, "Last year, Ethereum Layer 2 projects were only competing for liquidity and failed to form an attractive ecosystem, resulting in poor performance," but added, "This year, DeFi based on Base is expected to be promising, with projects like Aerodrome (AERO) and Morpho (MORPHO) drawing attention." Additionally, there is interest in DeFi projects related to the Trump family. World Liberty Finance (WLFI), supported by President-elect Donald Trump's family, holds tokens such as Aave (AAVE), Chainlink (LINK), Eterna (ENA), and Ondo Finance (ONDO). "Overall Crypto Market, Volatility and Trading Volume Declining... Whale Investors Holding and Watching" Recently, market experts have analyzed that while 'big hand' whale investors are maintaining a wait-and-see stance, individual and small-scale investor trading has slightly increased. As the overall trading volume in the cryptocurrency market decreases, volatility has slightly decreased, and the average loss of investors is observed to be expanding. Experts are forecasting long-term bullish potential despite the recent market weakness. On the 10th, cryptocurrency data analysis firm Santiment reported in a research report, "The buying trend of whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 Bitcoins appears to have stopped since the 18th of last month," adding, "In particular, the trading activity of these whales has decreased by 14% over the past two weeks. Whales are holding their holdings firmly while watching." On the other hand, individual investor trading volume increased by 22% during the same period, and the number of small wallets is reported to have increased. Despite several positive factors, the overall trading volume in the cryptocurrency market is decreasing. Santiment stated, "The average daily trading volume of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap has decreased by an average of 13% over the past two weeks," adding, "During the same period, Ethereum trading volume plummeted 17%, and meme coin trading volume has shown a significant decline since mid-last month." According to the report, recent spot trading volumes on Binance and Coinbase have decreased by 15% and 12%, respectively. There are also observations that 'defensive selling' to manage risk in the recent volatile market has increased. Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FXPro, stated, "In the recent downturn, the leading altcoin Ethereum has given up all of this year's gains and retreated below the $3,360 level," adding, "The altcoin market remains strong, but investors have become cautious and are opting for profit-taking (realizing profits) rather than future gains." On the other hand, there are also forecasts that the altcoin market is likely to continue its long-term bullish trend. Renowned cryptocurrency strategist Michael van de Poppe stated, "The cryptocurrency market has continued its bullish trend since last November when Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, but the upward momentum has quickly reversed due to FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) about Tether (USDT) being delisted in Europe, a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, and a strong dollar," diagnosing the situation. The strategist emphasized, "(Despite the recent decline) the cryptocurrency market has returned to levels from six months ago, but there is no signal that the bull market has ended yet." He added, "The current altcoin prices are very undervalued considering the long bull market that will unfold over the next 2-5 years," advising investors to maintain their current investment positions and hold altcoins. Meanwhile, on-chain indicators suggest that the risk for additional purchases or new investment entries is decreasing. Santiment stated, "Some professional traders have expressed concerns that a downturn similar to 2018 and 2022 could return," but added, "The MVRV indicators of many altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA), are entering the 'opportunity zone.'" MVRV is the ratio of a coin's current market cap to its realized market cap, indicating whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued. Santiment predicted, "Recently, the average loss of investors is increasing. The risk of buying more coins or opening new positions is lower than usual," adding, "If the bleeding in the cryptocurrency market increases further, the likelihood of a price rebound will increase." They explained that the recent 'blood in the streets' period could also act as an opportunity. Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit Reporter
2025.January.13PiCK