US and UK Central Banks Set to Decide Rates This Week Most Experts: "Cautious Approach Expected on Rate Cuts" With the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East escalating due to armed conflict between Israel and Iran, attention is turning to how this will affect the US and UK central banks as they prepare to decide benchmark interest rates this week. Most experts believe the Middle East crisis is causing oil prices to spike, which burdens global inflation, leading both the Fed and the Bank of England (BOE) to take a more cautious stance on rate cuts. The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 17th that geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are testing the resolve of central banks to cut rates, adding that the potential for new economic shocks from the Middle East would make the US and UK more cautious about easing. Analysts believe the Fed will refrain from rate cuts for now, despite recent easing of inflation, due to the possibility of surging oil prices. There are also warnings that if the Middle East conflict worsens, crude oil prices could exceed $80 per barrel. The Fed, along with other global central banks, remains wary of rising energy prices, with fresh memories of post-COVID-19 consumer price spikes. In particular, risks of stagflation—sluggish growth alongside rising prices—persist due to the trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump, fueling calls for greater caution regarding further rate cuts. Since cutting its key rate in December last year, the Fed has kept rates on hold, and markets expect this will likely continue at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 17th and 18th this month. The Bank of England also cut rates last month, but in light of the Middle East crisis, it is widely expected to hold the benchmark rate at 4.25% at its meeting on the 19th. Brent Crude, the global oil price benchmark, spiked as much as 12% after Israel attacked Iran in the early hours of the 13th (local time), before pulling back and showing volatility. Experts suggest that unless there are severe disruptions to the oil supply and Iran does not blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in oil prices should subside. According to data from the UK maritime trade authority, 111 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week, down from 147 the previous week, but there were no signs the strait was being closed. Most experts predict that this crisis in the Middle East will likely delay the Fed’s rate cuts, though some argue it could have the opposite effect. According to Yahoo Finance, Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics, stated in a recent report to clients, "If oil prices rise persistently, the Fed could take a more dovish (accommodative) stance." He also projected, "If the shock to the economy and labor market from surging oil prices outweighs its impact on inflation, the Fed could signal a rate cut earlier than expected." Hye-Won Ahn, Hankyung.com reporter anhw@hankyung.com
June 16General