"Has Bitcoin's 4-year cycle been broken?"… Divergent diagnoses amid institutionalization and changes in the liquidity environment

The traditional '4-year cycle theory' that has been used to describe the Bitcoin market is drawing conflicting assessments.

According to Cointelegraph on the 30th (local time), there are frequent claims that "this is no different from previous cycles," noting that Bitcoin entered a bearish phase after roughly a 30% correction from its post-halving peak. On the other hand, many view that the possibility of a crash and prolonged downturn similar to the past is limited, arguing that the structural demand environment has fundamentally changed.

Nick Luck, head of LVRG Research, said, "Starting around 2025, the halving-centered cycle began to wobble," and evaluated that "continuous institutional demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury allocations has mitigated sharp declines compared to the past and reduced volatility." He added, "In the short term, adjustments may continue amid macroeconomic pressures, but based on structural capital inflows, the bullish trend could extend through 2026."

In a similar vein, Grayscale suggested in a report earlier this month that Bitcoin could set a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, analyzing that "hedge demand against currency debasement and improved regulatory conditions in the U.S. are new drivers of the rally." Jeff Candrick, head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, also said, "The 4-year cycle theory is no longer valid," predicting "Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2026."

This perception is echoed by major industry figures. Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest; Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX; Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant; Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise; and Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, among others, report that "the clear 4-year cycle of the past is disappearing."

Conversely, there are also strong counterarguments that the cycle remains valid. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, diagnosed that "Bitcoin entered a bear market from the end of October 2025, which is the first reflection of economic slowdown." Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also maintains that the 4-year cycle is still valid, interpreting that "it's not that the 4-year cycle has been broken but that it has evolved to another stage."

There are also criticisms that expectations, rather than the cycle itself, are the problem. PlanB, known for the stock-to-flow model, analyzed that "existing holders who experienced the crash in 2021 and investors who worship the 4-year cycle sold preemptively, increasing downward pressure." Analyst Alex Wash said, "The cycle hasn't ended, it has only lengthened," adding, "the plunge in altcoins and a listless market mood make this more palpable."