[2026 Bitcoin Outlook] Industry divided..."ETF drives rebound" vs "Long correction coming"

Bitcoin outlook for next year: 'polar extremes'

"Record highs achieved" vs "Worsening downtrend"

JP Morgan·Standard Chartered "Spot ETF a strong support"

Bloomberg·Barclays "Decline due to high-rate burden"

There is a split in industry forecasts over Bitcoin (BTC) price movement next year. While some are optimistic that institutional inflows centered on spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will support prices, cautious views warning of a prolonged correction due to the macroeconomic environment and market maturation are also strong.

Bitcoin has recently continued range-bound movement without a clear direction. Since the 13th it has repeatedly failed to settle at $90,000 and has been moving sideways between about $85,000 and $90,000 for roughly three weeks. On the 28th, it temporarily broke above $90,000 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market in an attempted rebound, but gave back most of the gains the next day. As of the 29th (local time), Bitcoin was trading at $87,470, down 2.8% from the previous day.

"Rises next year...spot ETFs will lead the uptrend"

Institutions offering bullish forecasts commonly cite structural demand centered on spot ETFs as the main rationale. Standard Chartered, JP Morgan, Bernstein, and Citigroup are representative names.

Standard Chartered lowered next year's Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000 but still expects a continuation of record-high runs. Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said, "Bitcoin will continue to make higher highs, but the pace of gains will be slower than in the past," and assessed that "the recent decline is not an abnormal collapse but a normal corrective phase." He also emphasized that "Bitcoin has not entered a long-term down phase like the past four-year cycles" and that "buying through ETFs will be a central pillar supporting prices."

US investment bank Bernstein likewise judged that Bitcoin has moved away from the previous four-year cycle pattern into a long-term bullish phase. It analyzed that persistent institutional buying is offsetting retail selling. Bernstein said, "Even with about a 30% correction, ETF outflows remained below 5%," and set targets of $150,000 and $200,000 for 2026 and 2027, respectively. It also maintained a long-term $1,000,000 outlook for 2033.

JP Morgan offered a more aggressive view. Based on a volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-to-gold comparison metric, it said Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 within the next 12 months. JP Morgan analyzed, "Bitcoin's price action is becoming increasingly similar to gold," and that "there is roughly 84% upside potential over the next 6–12 months."

JP Morgan also said the behavior of the Strategy will be an important variable for Bitcoin prices. JP Morgan noted, "The Strategy recently secured about $1.4 billion in cash, which could cover dividend and interest payments for the next two years," and assessed that "the likelihood of Bitcoin sales has greatly decreased." It added, "If the Strategy remains in the MSCI index scheduled for the 15th of next month, Bitcoin could reach new record highs again," but warned, "if excluded, outflows of about $2.8 billion could occur."

Citigroup also viewed ETFs and regulatory improvements positively. Citi forecast Bitcoin could rise to up to $143,000 by next year and expected roughly $15 billion to flow into spot ETFs over the next 12 months. It also analyzed that the 'Clarity bill,' which would grant crypto supervisory authority to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), would provide institutional investors with clear rules and increase investment confidence.

"High rates and market maturation burden"…possibility of crash

Those presenting bearish forecasts see the high-rate environment and structural market changes as potential long-term burdens for Bitcoin. Fundstrat, Bloomberg Intelligence, and Barclays are representative.

Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, said in an internal report that the crypto market could face a severe correction in the first half of next year. Fundstrat projected Bitcoin could fall to $60,000–$65,000, Ethereum to $1,800–$2,000, and Solana to $50–$75. These levels are well below current market expectations.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, presented a more conservative scenario. He said, "As competition in the digital asset market intensifies and the market enters a maturation phase, downside risk for Bitcoin could persist," and that "Bitcoin could drop to around $50,000." He also noted that if gold continues to perform strongly next year, it could weigh on stocks and the broader crypto market. In a worsening macroeconomic environment—such as declines in oil and copper prices—an extreme scenario of Bitcoin plunging to $10,000 cannot be ruled out.

Barclays pointed to a slowdown in crypto market activity. It said overall crypto trading volumes are likely to decline next year, and spot trading volumes on major platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood have already noticeably decreased. Barclays assessed, "Much of the U.S. crypto-friendly environment is already priced in," and "without a clear catalyst, 2026 could be a weak year for the crypto market."