Slips at the threshold of 5,000—will Big Tech, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix earnings help the KOSPI settle in? [Weekly outlook]

The KOSPI’s push to settle above 5,000—dubbed “Ocheonpi (KOSPI 5,000)”—has been delayed. This week (26–30), attention is on whether the index can not only break through intraday as it did last week, but also finish above 5,000 and hold that level on a closing basis. Securities firms expect that solid earnings from U.S. Big Tech companies actively investing in artificial intelligence (AI), along with confirmed results from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, could provide momentum for the start of the “KOSPI 5,000 era.”

According to the Korea Exchange on the 25th, the KOSPI ended last week (19–23) at 4,990.07, up 3.08% from the prior week. It climbed above the 5,000 mark intraday on the 22nd and 23rd, resetting a 52-week high at 5,019.54, but failed to hold above 5,000 at the close. The intraday break triggered a wave of profit-taking.

Jung Hae-chang, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “The KOSPI is posting the highest return among major global equity markets, so we need to account for short-term cooling and digestion of supply,” adding, “But the broader uptrend is likely to continue.”

Corporate earnings are cited as one of the key drivers for the KOSPI to move above 5,000. In the U.S., Microsoft (MS), Meta Platforms and Tesla will report on the 28th (local time), followed by Apple and Amazon on the 29th. In Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will announce their confirmed results on the 29th.

Na Jung-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “Depending on cloud-segment revenue and guidance at MS and Amazon, expectations for AI compute demand could shift,” adding, “This could act as a variable for semiconductor and power equipment sectors tied to AI infrastructure.”

The stock market is also likely to react sensitively to what Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix say on their conference calls after earnings. That is because the KOSPI’s valuation (share-price level relative to earnings), which has risen sharply on upward revisions to earnings estimates for the two companies, remains at a manageable level.

Kang Jin-hyuk, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, “If profit estimates are revised up further after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix release earnings, the attractiveness of price-to-earnings-ratio (EPR) valuation could strengthen.” As of the close on the 22nd, the KOSPI’s 12-month forward PER was 10.55 times.

NH Investment & Securities presented this week’s expected KOSPI trading band at 4,800–5,100—a forecast that leaves more room to the downside.

As a downside factor, NH Investment & Securities pointed to a “U.S. Supreme Court ruling.” A final judgment is expected on the reciprocal tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on countries worldwide. In particular, if the court determines the reciprocal tariffs are illegal, uncertainty could increase, raising concerns about negative impacts on equities.

Macro events are also on deck.

The results of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are due on the 29th (local time). Expectations are leaning toward the policy rate being left unchanged. More than the rate decision itself, attention is focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, as President Trump has been strongly pressuring for rate cuts, fueling controversy over the Fed’s independence.

Jung said, “The equity market reflects a dual set of expectations—concern over the Fed’s independence while also wanting an accommodative monetary policy (as President Trump is pressing for),” adding, “The market can assign meaning even to Chair Powell’s stance and unintended nonverbal cues (regarding Fed independence).”

Lee Soo, Hankyung.com reporter 2su@hankyung.com

Han Kyung-woo, Hankyung.com reporter case@hankyung.com