U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see about 5.1 trillion won outflow so far this month

BlackRock ETF posts largest outflow since fund launch — 3.2 trillion won withdrawn

Citi: "Bitcoin ETF outflows lead to price declines"

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on track to record their largest monthly outflow in about two years since their launch, putting further pressure on the subdued cryptocurrency market.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg on the 24th (local time), investors have withdrawn US$3.5 billion (about 5.17 trillion won) from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs so far in November. This is close to the US$3.6 billion monthly outflow recorded in February. In particular, BlackRock's largest Bitcoin fund, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), saw about US$2.2 billion redeemed this month alone. This is expected to be the worst monthly outflow since the fund's inception.

Bitcoin fell to US$80,553 on the 21st but recovered somewhat over the weekend. As of 8:00 a.m. London time on the 24th, it had recovered to US$86,998.

Alex Sonders of Citi Research pointed out that ETF inflow-outflow dynamics are immediately reflected in Bitcoin prices. He projected a price of US$82,000 by year-end if there are no additional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. However, tens of billions of dollars were withdrawn this month alone, suggesting the possibility of further declines.

Citi Research's analysis of the correlation between ETF flows and Bitcoin's price trend found that on average every US$1 billion withdrawn corresponds to roughly a 3.4% drop in price. Conversely, a US$1 billion inflow leads to a similar rise in Bitcoin's price.

Since their launch in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a magnet for funds into the cryptocurrency asset class. According to Bloomberg, ETFs also form a feedback loop that amplifies market movements: when Bitcoin prices rise, inflows accelerate, and when prices fall, outflows tend to follow.

Lyn Tran, a market analyst at XS.com, said, "In the first half of this year, spot ETFs drove Bitcoin to record highs, but the reversal from sustained institutional inflows to outflows has had a negative impact on the price."

According to Bloomberg data, Friday's Bitcoin ETF trading volume hit a record US$11.5 billion. BlackRock's IBIT alone recorded US$8 billion in trading volume and US$122 million in outflows.

Nick Luck of LVRG Research said this volume "indicates a meaningful loss of preference among institutional investors and suggests that confidence has not yet fully recovered."

In U.S. markets, risk-on trades — from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to meme stocks and momentum bets — are also trending down. Bloomberg data shows the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks reached its highest level earlier this month.

Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, said, "Bitcoin's volatile trend since the summer can be interpreted as a sign of fatigue." She added that "stabilization of Bitcoin would help ease unease in the U.S. equity market."

Contributing reporter Kim Jeong-ah kja@hankyung.com