Robinhood backs prediction markets, considers establishing new derivatives exchange

Robinhood plans to launch a new futures and derivatives exchange in a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group (SIG) to expand its prediction market business. The new exchange is scheduled to begin operations in 2026.

According to The Block on the 26th (KST), Robinhood said in a statement that the joint venture will acquire MIAXdx (Designated Contract Market·DCM), a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), and a Swap Execution Facility (SEF) under Miami International Holdings. MIAX will retain a 10% stake in the new exchange.

The new exchange will offer futures, derivatives, and prediction market products, and SIG will participate as an initial liquidity provider.

Robinhood said, "Prediction market products have become the fastest-growing business segment, with more than 1 million people trading over 9 billion transactions to date," adding, "We will provide innovative products through investments in trading infrastructure."

In March this year, Robinhood collaborated with Kalshi to build an in-app prediction market hub, and in August added sports prediction markets linked to American football (NFL·NCAA).

U.S.-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi has recently outpaced Polymarket in monthly trading volume. As of October, Kalshi recorded $4.4 billion and Polymarket $3.02 billion in volume.

However, regulatory uncertainty surrounding prediction markets still remains to be resolved. According to Bloomberg, a Nevada federal court lifted the regulatory stay that had applied to Kalshi, allowing the state gaming authorities to resume enforcement procedures.

The court judged that sports-based prediction contracts operated by Kalshi, such as the timing of a football touchdown, are closer in nature to betting than derivatives. Accordingly, analyses suggest that Kalshi's sports-related markets will find it difficult to avoid scrutiny under Nevada state law.

Kalshi immediately expressed its intention to appeal and again requested an emergency injunction.