[Analysis] "Bitcoin gives a quiet warning in the derivatives market... movements indicate preparation for increased volatility"

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been moving within a limited range, but analysis finds signs in the derivatives market that it is preemptively pricing in the possibility of large price swings ahead.

On the 8th (local time), a 10x Research report said, "While Bitcoin currently appears to be in a stable trading range, fund positioning and price structure show that investors are conscious of the possibility of increased short-term volatility."

The report said that a preference for buying volatility, a downward shift in option skew, falling funding rates, dispersion in futures open interest, and continued ETF net outflows have been observed simultaneously, indicating the market is preparing for potential price volatility.

Meanwhile, optimists in the market view the rebuilding of the U.S. Treasury's general account (TGA), the end of quantitative tightening (QT), and the possibility of rate cuts as liquidity-expanding factors, but 10x Research emphasized, "Liquidity supply alone cannot create a directional trend," adding, "the level of leverage, position structure, and whether trading flows are synchronized are more important."