Altcoin rally 'on hold'…funds flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum

Capital flows in the crypto assets (cryptocurrencies) market are refocusing from altcoins to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders prefer delta-neutral strategies over directional bets, and views that the 'alt season' will be delayed are gaining traction.

On the 10th (local time), BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin briefly fell by nearly $4,000 after forced liquidations totaling $2 billion occurred, then rebounded to around $92,000. In the process, Bitcoin dominance remained at about 59.11% based on the top 125 crypto assets, and Ethereum dominance also moved within a narrow range around 12.80%, making the preference for major assets clear.

Market maker Wintermute said in its latest report, "A rare flow is observed where both institutions and individuals are simultaneously flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum," and analyzed that "selective risk-taking is being strengthened over broad beta exposure." It explained that as momentum in risk assets like the Nasdaq weakened, participants prioritized proven large crypto assets and reduced leverage.

Short-term direction is expected to be influenced by central bank decisions worldwide. Depending on this week's interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and next week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting results, interest rate differentials and volatility may be readjusted through year-end. Wintermute said implied volatility for year-end expirations remains high, and the market is pricing in both-sided targets such as $85,000 or $100,000 simultaneously, so "weight is being placed on a box range scenario rather than a clear trend."

In this environment, delta-neutral and carry strategies stand out. Especially in non-major assets, non-directional positions that emphasize capital efficiency are increasing, so aggressive long betting across altcoins is limited. Funds are flowing into some small crypto assets only briefly, but by market capitalization, there is no broad rotation that could be called an 'alt season.'

Wintermute diagnosed, "The market currently remains in a consolidation range without clear conviction, and future direction will be determined by macro events," adding, "This is a phase that prefers neutral and carry strategies to secure returns rather than chase breakouts." The industry views that resumption of the alt season requires easing of macro uncertainty, Bitcoin's settling into key resistance zones, and a recovery of overall risk-asset preference, but the prevailing view is that these conditions are unlikely to be met in the short term.