"Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains, but the driving force has shifted to politics and liquidity"

The four-year cycle pattern, long regarded as a defining feature of Bitcoin (BTC), remains valid, but analysts say its operating mechanism has changed from the past.

On the 14th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said on the 'The Wolf of All Streets' podcast that "the view that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been broken misses the point," adding that "the cycle itself is being maintained, but the programmed supply reduction known as the halving is no longer the central driving force."

Thielen instead analyzed that the U.S. presidential election schedule, central bank monetary policy, and capital inflows into risk assets are increasingly shaping the Bitcoin cycle. He pointed out that the all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 were all formed in the fourth quarter, emphasizing that this trend aligns more closely with the presidential election cycle and political uncertainty than with the timing of halvings. In fact, Bitcoin halvings have occurred at various times of the year.

He also touched on how the political environment could affect the market going forward. Thielen said, "If the Republican Party loses congressional seats and President Donald Trump's political standing weakens, the ability to push through policy could be limited." He explained that such political uncertainty itself can act as a factor that increases volatility in markets for risk assets, including Bitcoin.