Summary
- It reported that Bitcoin's price is in an extremely low volatility period and warnings say a directional move is imminent.
- Technical analysis says that if the bear flag is valid, additional decline is possible, while a break above $94,600 could lead to a shift to bullish momentum.
- On-chain data analysis noted weakness in short- and medium-term moving averages and declining volume, increasing the possibility of further adjustments, so attention should be paid to market reactions at major technical levels.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow range over the weekend, prompting repeated warnings in the market that a large volatility move is imminent.
On the 14th (local time), according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data, Bitcoin failed to break the upside despite several rebound attempts. As a result, on the daily chart a "bear flag" pattern remains in place, and on shorter timeframes the price appears tightly compressed. Technically, it is interpreted as a phase where energy is being accumulated.
Trader Aksel Kibar said, "An extremely low volatility period means that a directional move is imminent." He presented two scenarios. First, if the bear flag remains valid, an additional drop could occur to the $73,700–$76,500 range, forming a medium-term bottom. Conversely, if $94,600 is clearly broken to the upside, a test of $100,000 could proceed quickly.
Other traders also agreed that the market is at a turning point. Crypto Tony identified $90,600 and $89,800 as the key box range and said, "Now is a zone where one should only act when a breakout occurs." He judged that aggressive position entries in a non-directional range carry large risks.
Meanwhile, on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant offered a more pessimistic view. Pelin Ay, a CryptoQuant contributor, said, "Short- and medium-term moving averages maintain a downward slope, and rebounds are not accompanied by volume. Bitcoin is currently in a rebound phase within a bear market." He added, "Structurally selling pressure is dominant, and an additional adjustment to the $50,000s before the next bullish cycle cannot be ruled out."
In the market, expectations for re-testing lows in December are gradually increasing. Because the longer the volatility contraction lasts, the larger the price movement after a breakout is likely to be, analysts say attention should be paid to reactions at major technical levels rather than short-term direction.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
