[Analysis] "Bitcoin falls below $86,000… whale selling pressure continues despite individual buying"

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the $86,000 level at times and continues to show weakness as whale selling persists despite individual buying.

On the 16th (local time), according to HighBlock Capital order flow data cited by Cointelegraph, small Bitcoin wallets ($0–$10,000) recorded cumulative net purchases of $169 million, consistently buying during the decline. Mid-sized participants ($1,000–$100,000) also built cumulative net long positions of $305 million, appearing to position for a short-term rebound.

By contrast, whale wallets ($100,000–$10,000,000) recorded cumulative net sales of $2.78 billion. The outlet said, "Buying by individuals and mid-sized investors alone is insufficient to absorb institution/whale-level selling," and added that "there is a clear divergence in perception between small investors, who view price levels below $100,000 as a 'discount zone,' and large holders, who use the same range as an 'opportunity to reduce exposure.'"

On-chain indicators also showed warning signs. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio (SOPR, 7-day moving average) fell to around 0.99, below 1. This indicates that bitcoins held for less than 155 days are, on average, being sold at a loss. Historically, such ranges have often coincided with localized sell-off phases, but Adler said it is difficult to declare a trend reversal until SOPR recovers above 1 and stabilizes.

The technical structure has also weakened. Bitcoin broke out of an ascending wedge pattern, fell below the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP), and a bearish structure shift (BOS) was confirmed below $87,600. With the short-term upside invalidated, the market remains open to further declines toward previous liquidity zones.

Cointelegraph analyzed that "as of now, around $83,800 is the first support, and if selling pressure continues, the quarterly low near $80,600 could also fall within the adjustment range." Both order flow and on-chain indicators point to the need for a cautious approach until clear bottom signals are confirmed.