U.S. forecasts large tax refunds… Could virtual asset liquidity expectations increase?

The U.S. Treasury said large refunds will be made in next year's tax filing season, raising expectations of liquidity inflows into the virtual asset market. Analysts say there could be a significant improvement in household cash flow due to the retroactive application effect of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed in July.

On the 17th (local time), The DeStreet reported that Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, who recently appeared on NBC10 Philadelphia, said American households will receive very large refunds in the next tax filing season. He explained, "The bill passed in July, but workers did not change withholding," and "there will be very large refunds in the first quarter."

Bessent said the refunds could total between 100 billion dollars and 150 billion dollars. He added, "On a per-household basis, it could be about 1,000 dollars to 2,000 dollars." The remarks came as the Trump administration promotes tax cuts as a key pillar of price stability and growth policy.

OBBBA is a comprehensive bill that combines several household-centered tax policies. It eliminates federal tip income tax and overtime pay taxation and retroactively adjusts withholding rules for the current tax year. Because the law's effective date falls within the year, most workers paid taxes under the existing rules, which caused refunds to be larger than expected.

The market views the bill's core effect as liquidity. Large refunds can supply households with immediately usable cash without regulatory changes, supporting consumption and promoting flows into risk assets. Virtual assets are cited as one of the beneficiaries of this flow.

According to IRS data, total refunds during the 2025 tax filing season reached 211 billion dollars, and the average refund was 3,116 dollars. OBBBA supporters argue that if next year's refunds are larger than this, household financial structures and consumption capacity could further improve.

Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, also highlighted the effect of tax cuts. She said, "You can clearly see the impact on income levels," and that the tax benefits could raise the nominal disposable income growth rate from about 4% to about 8% on an annualized basis. "This is a very large income increase that would give consumers more spending power," she assessed.

For virtual asset investors, the timing and size of refunds may become more important. The IRS classifies virtual assets as property rather than currency, so most transactions such as sales or exchanges are subject to capital gains tax. The market analyzes that large refunds could ease the burden of tax payments and provide an opportunity to reallocate spare funds back into virtual assets.