U.S. XRP ETF inflows continue…Is a rebound signal emerging amid price weakness?

XRP (XRP) is continuing a weak trend, while U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs have seen steady inflows, raising the possibility of institutional accumulation. Analysts say a divergence between ETF flows and spot prices has widened, forming a mid-term rebound signal.

On the 17th (local time), AMB Crypto reported that the XRP ETF recorded net inflows of $10.89 million during the day, continuing the inflow trend since listing. According to related tallies, the XRP ETF has seen net inflows for more than 30 days since its launch, and total net assets have exceeded $1.12 billion. Over the same period, the XRP price showed a downward trend, making the divergence between flows and price more pronounced.

The ETF cash flows are seen as indicating that institutional demand is being maintained. According to data provider SoSoValue, the XRP ETF has not recorded a large-scale outflow even for a single day since its listing. Even amid increased market volatility, ETF buying has been sustained, leading to speculation that institutional investors may view the current price range as a medium- to long-term entry zone.

Meanwhile, in the spot market, XRP's price trend remains weak. XRP is currently trading around $1.92 and is down more than 40% from its year-to-date high. Since early November, the downtrend has continued, showing a typical bearish structure on the daily chart, with both daily lows and highs getting lower.

However, technical indicators also show signs of weakening bearish momentum. On TradingView, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is gradually flattening, and the MACD line and signal line suggest the possibility of a golden cross. This is interpreted as a signal that selling pressure is weakening.

Some in the market also note that this resembles past patterns where ETF inflows and retail selling diverged. They say that if ETF purchases continue during the price decline, institutions may be buying the dip and retail selling could be nearing its end. In the past, there have been several cases where spot prices later recovered after a divergence between ETF flows and price.

Looking ahead, $1.85 is cited as the first support level. If that level breaks, there is potential for further decline to $1.70. Conversely, on a rebound, the recovery of $2.05 is identified as a turning point for trend reversal. It is observed that if daily ETF net inflows expand above $15 million, upward pressure could be applied to the spot market as well.