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Bitcoin 'Santa Rally' expectations reignited… Improvements in derivatives indicators also raise a $120,000 target
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- It reported that with expectations of a 'Santa Rally' for Bitcoin, some analysts have proposed a mid-term target of $100,000–$120,000.
- Derivatives indicators show a structure that is favorable for a short-term rise, and it stated that as short position liquidations increase, upward price pressure may grow.
- The $84,000 range is identified as a major demand zone, and it said that if this support level holds, a retest of $100,000 is also possible.
- The article was summarized using an artificial intelligence-based language model.
- Due to the nature of the technology, key content in the text may be excluded or different from the facts.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the $90,000 level, and year-end 'Santa Rally' expectations are being raised again.
On the 22nd, crypto-focused media Cointelegraph reported that "derivatives indicators are showing signals favorable for a short-term rise, and some analysts are mentioning a mid-term target range of $100,000–$120,000." Bitcoin rose intraday to $90,588 and rebounded about 7% from recent lows.
Talk of a year-end rally possibility is resurfacing in the market. Analyst Alphabitcoin wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that "Bitcoin is seeking a Santa Rally," and suggested the next test range as $98,000–$100,000 after recovering $93,300.
Captain Pivic analyzed that "Bitcoin has been trading sideways in the $82,000–$95,000 range since the end of November, and in the process is attempting a technical upside breakout." He presented $120,000 as the theoretical target for that pattern.
On the other hand, there is also caution. Analyst Ardi pointed out, based on year-end trends over the past five years, that "the Santa Rally's returns have gradually declined," and noted that in 2021, when post-halving dynamics were similar, there was about an 8% drop during the year-end period.
In the derivatives market, an assessment has emerged that a structure favorable to a short-term rise is forming. CryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr. said, "The regime score indicator is in a bullish zone but not overheated." The indicator is currently 16.3%, which is classified, based on past cases, as a level with remaining upside potential.
In particular, in the futures market, short position liquidations are dominant. The long-short liquidation dominance indicator fell to -11%, indicating that short liquidations are concentrated in the short term. Adler explained, "The more short liquidations increase, the greater the upward price pressure can be."
However, the market points to defending $84,000 as a key variable. Trader Dan Crypto Trays said, "$84,000 is a price level that must be protected on higher timeframes."
According to Glassnode, about 976,000 BTC are concentrated as buy orders in the $84,000–$85,600 range, making that price range act as a major demand zone. The outlet said, "If this support holds, a retest of $100,000 becomes possible, but if broken, a re-test of the $80,000 level is also possible."
