VanEck "Bitcoin hashrate down 4%% in a month… mid-term bullish signal"

The Bitcoin (BTC) network hashrate decreased by about 4% over the past month through mid-December, and analysts say this may signal a potential mid-term price recovery based on past cases.

According to a VanEck report cited by Cointelegraph on the 23rd (local time), after the hashrate declined on a 30-day basis, 90-day price returns were positive in 65% of the full period since 2014. This is higher than the 54% recorded when the hashrate increased.

Matt Sigel (Matt Sigel), head of VanEck digital asset research, and Patrick Bush (Patrick Bush), senior analyst, explained, "When hashrate compression persists for a certain period, subsequent returns tend to occur more often and be larger."

This pattern persisted over longer mid-to-long-term periods as well. After the hashrate decreased on a 90-day basis, the proportion of times Bitcoin price rose over the following 180 days was 77%, and the average increase reached 72%. This exceeds the 61% probability of price rises recorded when the hashrate increased over the same period.

The report assessed that this trend could act positively for the mining industry. If Bitcoin prices rebound, some mining firms’ profitability could improve, or equipment that had been shut down for failing to reach breakeven could come back online. Bitcoin is currently trading at about 88,400 dollars, which is roughly 30% lower than the all-time high recorded in early October.

However, the mining environment itself remains challenging. VanEck stated that the breakeven electricity cost for the 2022 Bitmain (Bitmain) S19 XP miner fell from 0.12 dollars per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in December 2024 to about 0.077 dollars recently, a drop of about 36%. This is interpreted as an indicator that the structure is being reorganized so that only miners who can bear electricity costs survive.

VanEck added, "In the short term, pressure on the mining industry may continue, but historically, phases of hashrate decline have acted as contrarian buy signals for Bitcoin prices," adding, "it can serve as an important reference indicator for judging price trends over the coming months."