[Analysis] "Bitcoin needs a recovery in the 6% range to close the year higher"

An analysis suggested that if Bitcoin (BTC) does not see a meaningful rebound in the remaining trading days, this year could close down on an annual basis for the first time since the halving.

On the 29th (local time), market analyst Alex Perkrin recently said, "Bitcoin needs about an additional 6.24% rise to flip to an annual gain. If this is not met, it will record an annual decline for the first time since the halving." Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $125,000 in early October, but a sharp correction since then has halted the upward trend.

Bitcoin is currently trading at roughly 30% below its peak. In November it formed a short-term low around $80,000, but with limited rebound momentum, market opinions diverge on whether the bull market has ended. Some view it as an extension of the correction phase, while others mention the possibility of entering a new bear market.

Technically, Bitcoin has been trading below the 365-day moving average since November, and the structural uptrend that had continued since 2023 has been impaired. As liquidity decreases toward year-end, short-term direction is said to be increasingly sensitive to changes in the macro environment.

Market participants' attention is focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)'s monetary policy path. The Fed cut interest rates three times by 0.25% points during 2025, but after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Jerome Powell expressed a cautious stance regarding the future policy path.

According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of an additional rate cut in January next year is less than 20%. With limited expectations for rate cuts, whether Bitcoin can succeed in a year-end rebound remains uncertain.