[Analysis] "2026 virtual asset market to be reorganized into an 'institution-centered·profit verification' era"

As the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market enters a phase of institutional integration, it is expected that by 2026 institutional-centered conservative capital flows and a restructuring focused on profit verification will begin in earnest.

On the 29th, Web3 research and consulting firm Tiger Research said that as institutional capital inflows expand, next year's market is likely to be reorganized around projects and sustainable business models that can generate actual profits rather than short-term price fluctuations or narratives.

First, institutional funds are expected to concentrate on major assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the past trickle-down effect to altcoins overall is likely to weaken. Accordingly, altcoin projects will face competition to be selected by institutions.

The pace of exit for projects that cannot generate profits is also expected to accelerate. Many projects listed this year experienced price declines, revealing the limitations of narrative-driven strategies. Projects that rely on short-term trends will be quickly phased out, and only projects with real profit structures and fundamentals are likely to survive.

From a tokenomics perspective, utility-centric designs are losing strength. Instead of governance powers or complex structures, clear value-return mechanisms such as buyback·burn or models in which protocol growth is directly linked to token value are emerging as market demands.

In terms of industry structure, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) among projects are expected to increase. As a strategy to secure dominance in a mature market stage, a winner-centered restructuring is likely to accelerate.

In the technology domain, the combination of robotics and blockchain was also observed as having the potential to form a new gig economy. Decentralized data crowdsourcing and instant reward structures could be used as means to obtain robot learning data.

At the same time, the possible introduction of prediction markets as a revenue model for news organizations was mentioned. If a structure in which readers directly participate in news outcomes becomes established, it could aim for both revenue diversification for news organizations and increased reader participation.

The role of traditional financial institutions is also expected to expand. In the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) market, financial institutions are likely to build their own chains to supply products directly, and projects without independent supply capabilities may lose competitiveness.

On the product side, the introduction of an Ethereum staking ETF could rekindle interest in Bitcoin finance (BTCFi). Demand to utilize additional returns from Bitcoin ETF assets may stimulate BTCFi growth.

User acquisition routes are also expected to change. As regulations become clearer and virtual asset trading within fintech apps becomes commonplace, fintech services are likely to become the main entry route rather than exchanges.

Finally, the importance of privacy technologies was highlighted to expand institutional participation. Given institutional investors' reluctance to expose trading strategies, transaction information protection technologies are expected to become core infrastructure for institutional capital inflows.