Virtual assets lagging gold and stocks this year…"Room for catch-up rebound in 2026"

The virtual assets market showed clear underperformance against gold and stocks through the end of 2025, but there is a view that it could narrow the relative return gap in 2026. Although market participation has declined and price adjustments continue, changes in the behavior of large holders could be a sign of a rebound.

On the 31st (local time), Cointelegraph reported that on-chain analysis platform Santiment assessed that Bitcoin has lagged significantly behind gold and the United States stock market benchmark, the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500). Since early November, gold prices have risen by about 9% and the S&P 500 has risen about 1%, but Bitcoin has fallen about 20% and is currently trading around $88,000.

Santiment said, "The performance of Bitcoin and virtual assets overall still lags major asset classes," but added, "As we move into 2026, there remains an opportunity for virtual assets to attempt a catch-up rebound." This means that if correlations between assets change again, capital flows could move back into virtual assets.

The key is the movement of large holders, so-called whale wallets. According to Santiment, in the second half of 2025 small wallets were actively buying but large wallets were mostly flat and, after the October peak, engaged in some selling. Santiment explained, "Historically, a typical pattern for a bearish phase turning bullish has appeared when large wallets start buying and individual investors are selling."

Trends among long-term holders are also being watched. Long-term holders have recently stopped selling Bitcoin, putting a brake on the decline in holdings. The amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders, which was about 14,800,000 in mid-July, fell to about 14,300,000 in December, but no further decrease has been observed since then.

Some market participants have suggested that capital flows may already have begun. Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, recently said, "The short squeeze in the metals market ended as expected and capital has gradually begun to move into virtual assets." He added, "Capital is the same. It always follows the flow of selling high and buying low."

On-chain data also shows mixed signals. According to Nansen, over the past 24 hours the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by about 5.51%, but the number of transactions decreased by about 30%. This means participation addresses have increased, but actual trading strength has not yet recovered.

Market analyst CyrilXBT described the current situation as "typical late-cycle positioning just before a transition." He said, "If liquidity turns and Bitcoin breaks through structure, gold cools and Bitcoin leads, followed by Ethereum and altcoins. The market always moves before the narrative."