[Analysis] Bitcoin, structural indicator shifts to 'risk-on'…Resistance breakout attempts coexist with bull-trap warnings
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Summary
- Bitcoin recently showed a 'risk-on' signal along with structural indicators, raising the possibility of a bullish transition.
- However, it warned that during attempts to break major resistance levels, there is simultaneously the risk of a bull trap and short-term correction.
- Long-term accumulating addresses have reached a record high and cumulative accumulation flows are being maintained, but market interpretations are mixed.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing signs via structural indicators that it is moving out of a bearish phase and gradually into a risk-on preference for risky assets. However, near major resistance levels, warnings are also raised about short-term overheating and the possibility of a bull trap.
On the 6th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr said, "The 'Structure Shift Indicator,' which synthesizes channel price position, moving average trend, and directional indicators, has recently shown a clear reversal," adding, "The indicator suggested downward pressure as it moved below -0.3 until the end of December, but it broke above zero last Friday and then rose rapidly to +0.73 on Sunday."
Over the same period, Bitcoin's price rose from about $87,500 to $91,400, showing a consistency between the indicator change and price movement. Adler Jr noted that "structural indicators are synchronously shifting from a bearish phase to a bullish phase. Historically, when the indicator remains above +0.5, it has often entered an uptrend." However, he added that if the indicator falls back below zero while the price is testing the key resistance near $96,000, that could signal a false breakout or a bull trap.
Momentum and on-chain channel position are sending similar signals. Recent Bitcoin momentum has stabilized in the 0.85–0.89 range, well above the 3-month average of 0.5, though it has not yet reached an extreme overheating phase. At the same time, the channel position indicator rose to 0.99, indicating that Bitcoin is approaching the upper end of the recent 3-week high at $92,000. This both increases the possibility of a breakout and raises the risk of a short-term correction. The current lower support of the range is presented around $85,000.
On the supply-demand side, long-term accumulation flows are being maintained. According to CryptoQuant, the amount of Bitcoin held by so-called "accumulating addresses" reached a record 2.28 million BTC. This corresponds to approximately $211 billion and indicates that an accelerated cumulative accumulation flow has continued through 2024–2025. Retail investors' purchases are increasing relatively moderately, so the overheating signs typical of a late cycle are not yet pronounced.
Market interpretations are mixed. Plan C, the creator of the Bitcoin quantile model, said, "Bitcoin has already exited the downtrend. The roughly six-week consolidation period is similar to a typical accumulation pattern," and added, "If $94,500 is broken upward, a rapid rise to $100,000 is possible." Meanwhile, trader Peter DiCarlo warned, "This rebound is a movement that could be a bull trap," saying, "A sharp rise toward $100,000 would not confirm a new bull market but could lure in late buyers and then lead to a deep correction down to the $70,000s."
In summary, Bitcoin shows a 'risk-on' shift signal in structural and on-chain indicators, but it faces a crossroads between continued bullishness and short-term traps depending on whether it can break key resistance levels.
