[Analysis] "Bitcoin and Ethereum rise together…possibility of a regime shift in the virtual asset market"

At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rose together, and with geopolitical variables and option market flows coinciding, the possibility of a regime shift in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market is being raised.

On the 5th (local time), QCP Capital said in a report, "The virtual asset market, which had been range-bound in December last year, attempted a clear upside breakout in the Asian session at the start of the year, and Bitcoin and Ethereum rose together. This unfolded in an environment where a strong stock market and falling oil prices occurred simultaneously after the United States arrested Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro."

The report interpreted this flow not as a mere coincidence but as an early signal of a 'regime shift' in the way the virtual asset market moves. It explained that the impact of year-end tax loss harvesting weakened, and as optionality on policy variables re-emerged, virtual assets began to react in the same direction as traditional risk assets such as stocks. This suggests that, starting in early 2026, the macro sensitivity of the virtual asset market has risen a level.

The Venezuela factor was mentioned as an indirect additional catalyst. While the disinflationary effect brought by falling oil prices is relatively clear, the possibility that Venezuela is secretly stockpiling Bitcoin was assessed as a more complex variable. On this, QCP said, "The story about Venezuela's Bitcoin stockpile is still an unverified claim," but analyzed that "if seized bitcoins are not sold into the market and are retained, the narrative of state-level Bitcoin accumulation would be reinforced and could have meaningful effects on supply and demand."

In the derivatives market, gradually positive signals are appearing. As demand for put options hedging against price declines decreases, the market's downside caution also appears to ease. Meanwhile, demand for $100,000 call options expiring on January 30, 2026, and for upper straddles is increasing. They assess that if spot prices rise moderately, the option structures could bring in additional buying and potentially reinforce the upward trend.

However, QCP added that, considering the repeatedly observed 'pullback after rallies' pattern in recent U.S. markets, restrained positioning rather than excessive optimism is necessary. Their analysis is that while the structural environment is improving, a cautious approach is still required in phases of increased short-term volatility.