Bitcoin mining difficulty edges down in first 2026 adjustment, but pressure on miners persists

Bitcoin network mining difficulty ticked down slightly in the first adjustment of 2026.

According to Cointelegraph on the 11th (local time), as of the 5th, Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted to 146.4 trillion, slightly lower than the previous level. However, with the average block time still shorter than the 10-minute target, forecasts suggest there is a strong likelihood difficulty will be raised again in the next adjustment.

CoinWarz, a mining data provider, estimates the next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is scheduled for Jan. 22 (UTC) and projects difficulty will rise from 146.47 trillion to around 148.20 trillion. The current average block time stands at about 9.88 minutes, leaving room for the network to increase difficulty to slow block production.

Bitcoin mining difficulty repeatedly set new all-time highs throughout 2025. In November last year, it surged to 155.9 trillion, marking a record high, but after year-end and early-year adjustments it has remained in a somewhat lower range. Even so, elevated difficulty signals intensifying mining competition and is seen as increasing cost burdens across the mining industry.

In particular, 2025 was recorded as the "worst margin environment on record" for Bitcoin miners. Following the April 2024 halving that cut block rewards in half, profitability deteriorated sharply amid macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory pressures. Adding to this, the fallout from a steep selloff in October last year pushed Bitcoin prices down to the low-$80,000 range in November, maximizing financial strain on mining firms.

Hash price, a key metric of mining profitability, also fell below breakeven in November last year. The industry typically views $40 per petahash per day (PH/s) as the benchmark for deciding whether to keep mining, but the figure dropped to $35 or lower at the time, the lowest level in years. The industry expects that even if Bitcoin prices rebound, structural pressure on miners will be difficult to alleviate as long as rising difficulty and the burden of power and equipment costs persist.