[Weekly Outlook for New York and Shanghai Stocks] Global investors watch as the U.S. Supreme Court rules on Trump tariffs

U.S. December CPI and PPI due for release

China’s December money supply (M2) and new lending data due

This week (12–16), Wall Street is expected to focus on the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of the Donald Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs.

The court has announced it will deliver decisions on major cases on the 14th (local time), which the market believes will include the case concerning Trump’s reciprocal-tariff policy.

The U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the October and November Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be released. The PPI is being published later than usual after last year’s U.S. federal government shutdown disrupted data compilation.

With Federal Reserve (Fed) officials still emphasizing the need to bring inflation down, expectations for rate cuts could be further pared back depending on the CPI results.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the federal funds futures market expects the first rate cut of the year to come only in June.

Earnings releases from major banks are scheduled for this week. JPMorgan Chase reports on the 13th, while Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America are set to report on the 14th. A series of speeches by Fed members will also follow. On the 12th, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and New York Fed President John Williams are set to speak. On the 13th, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak, followed by remarks from Fed Governor Steven Myron on the 14th.

In early 2026, Chinese stocks, which have been resilient on the back of a strong semiconductor cycle, enter a week that will test the real economy’s underlying strength. The key event is the release of December money supply (M2) and new lending data on the 12th. The market currently expects liquidity growth to have slowed somewhat, but with the People’s Bank of China having signaled an accommodative monetary policy stance from the start of the year, greater weight is being placed on policymakers’ willingness to provide support. On the 14th, December trade data will be released. The key question is whether global demand is recovering and whether China’s export competitiveness is holding up amid trade frictions with the U.S.

New York=Park Shin-young, correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com