[Analysis] "Ethereum could be poised to make a run at $4,000 as spot-led rebound gathers steam"

As spot buying drives the price recovery, futures positions are expanding without signs of overheating—fueling analysis that Ethereum (ETH) could test $4,000 in the next phase.

On the 13th (local time), Cointelegraph said, "Despite the recent rebound, Ethereum has yet to establish a clear new all-time high," adding that "a look at the microstructure of the futures and spot markets suggests a move that is preparing for a medium-term expansion rather than short-term overheating, and if this trend continues, an attempt to break above $4,000 will gain momentum," it analyzed.

According to the outlet, Ethereum’s futures open interest (OI) has recovered to levels seen before a 38% plunge in Q4 2025. Prices, however, remain about 27% below the Oct. 10, 2025 open. This suggests traders are gradually rebuilding exposure rather than chasing price.

Positioning quality also appears to be improving. Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio fell to 0.67 on Jan. 11 from a record high of 0.79 on Jan. 2. With OI rising while leverage eases, the risk of cascading liquidations is seen as lower. The account-based long/short ratio remains skewed bullish at around 2.66, but signals of aggressive momentum chasing are limited.

This rebound is being led not by futures but by the spot market. The recent rally was driven by rising spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), indicating inflows of genuine market buying. Typically, spot CVD-led advances tend to be more durable, which is interpreted as a support factor on the downside.

On-chain and macro signals are also lending support. On-chain analysis shows continued staking inflows from institutional and corporate money, confirming longer-term, hold-oriented demand. The outlet accordingly pointed to $4,000 as the next key hurdle after major resistance flipped into support. If spot demand holds and is not accompanied by a renewed leverage build-up, whether Ethereum breaks above $4,000 is expected to be a watershed for the medium-term trend.