Trump tells Iranian protesters to “seize government institutions” … aiming for regime change? [Lee Sang-eun’s Washington Now]

As anti-government protests continue in Iran, the United States has repeatedly signaled its willingness to intervene, maintaining a posture that suggests it would not rule out even military action. Some analysts say Washington is effectively encouraging the overthrow of the Iranian government and may be seeking outright regime change.

US President Donald Trump, in a post on social media on the 13th (local time), urged demonstrators on, writing: “Patriots of Iran, keep protesting. Seize your (government) institutions.” He added, “Record the names of those who kill and abuse. They will pay a big price.” Trump said he had “canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until (the Iranian government) stops the indiscriminate killing of protesters,” adding that “help is on the way.”

Hinting at a pinpoint military operation

In an interview with CBS that evening, Trump spoke in terms that suggested the United States could carry out a military operation against the Iranian government. Asked what form US help for Iran would take, he replied, “A lot of help is going in many forms. From our standpoint, it includes economic support.”

He also added, “We won’t help Iran all that much.” He went on to say, “We neutralized Iran’s nuclear capability.” The remarks are being interpreted as pointing not to all-out war but to a “pinpoint” limited military operation targeting Iran’s leadership. Trump said whether the Iranian government is killing many people would determine whether the United States intervenes, adding, “No one has given me an exact number, but it seems like it will be a very large number, and that will be a big problem for them.”

According to tallies by the US-based group Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), the death toll linked to the protests in Iran is about 2,000 so far (including 135 military and police officers). Iran Human Rights (IHR), a Norway-based group, put the death toll at 734, estimating that unconfirmed information suggests it could be as high as 6,000.

When asked on the 14th about the possibility that the Iranian government could hang anti-government protesters, Trump said, “If they do that, we will take very strong action.” Asked how far “very strong action” would go, he said, “Winning,” adding, “I like winning.” In that context, he mentioned the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on the 3rd and the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, then a leader of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), during his first term.

Will the US support regime change?

Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s former crown prince, is urging the United States to intervene in Iran’s situation. The United States became deeply involved in Iranian politics after World War II, but ultimately failed to prevent the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the rise of a clerical leadership. The Pahlavi dynasty was pro-American but was also a dictatorship.

Inside Iran, some back Pahlavi as an alternative, but there is not a broad-based public movement to elevate him. That suggests there could be backlash if the United States were to immediately replace the leadership with Pahlavi as the next leader. In Tehran, Iran’s capital, large-scale pro-government rallies have been held day after day. Anti-government protesters are avoiding becoming targets by taking to the streets openly after a sweeping violent crackdown.

Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, warned in an article for Foreign Affairs that US regime-change policies have failed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya or produced serious side effects, adding that “attacks on targets could trigger a nationalist backlash inside Iran.”

There are also signs of debate within the US government as it weighs the level of intervention. On the 2nd, Trump said, “If the regime violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States will come to the rescue,” adding, “We’re loaded and ready to go at any time.” But even as it is clear protesters have been shot dead, he has continued for more than 10 days to make only statements about “intervening.” Reuters reported that an option under discussion is applying to Iran a “Venezuela model” that removes the core leadership while guaranteeing the status of existing forces that cooperate from outside.

Key US military assets deployed in the Middle East are also not in a position suited for an immediate response. According to The Washington Post (WP), the US Navy’s aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford was redeployed to the Caribbean because of the Venezuela operation. The George Washington is in Japan, and the Abraham Lincoln is in the South China Sea. A US official told WP, “The current administration does not have assets in the (Middle East) region that can carry out a full physical strike without the risk of retaliation.” Still, there remains the possibility of using separate strike assets, as in the “Midnight Hammer” operation that bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The international community is watching the US response. The UK condemned the Iranian authorities’ violent crackdown and signaled additional sanctions. The Wall Street Journal, citing Arab officials, reported that the governments of Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar are trying to persuade the White House that attempts to topple the Iranian regime would roil the oil market and ultimately hit the US economy. Russia said it “condemns the United States’ destructive interference in Iran.”

Washington=Correspondent Lee Sang-eun selee@hankyung.com