[Analysis] "Bitcoin faces a pullback as derivatives-led rebound loses steam"…On-chain data warns of a 'bear-market rally'

Bitcoin (BTC) turned weaker early in the week as a rebound that had been driven mainly by derivatives lost momentum. With spot demand failing to provide clear support, leveraged positions were unwound, widening volatility.

On the 19th (local time), CoinDesk reported that “Bitcoin is trading around $92,500, down about 3%, retreating from an attempt to push into the mid-$95,000 range,” adding that “the futures-market-led advance appears to have lost steam.”

The derivatives market also saw large-scale liquidations. According to CoinGlass data, about $680 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, of which roughly $600 million came from long positions—evidence that bullish positioning had become crowded during the rebound.

Altcoins broadly came under pressure as well. Solana (SOL) fell 6.7%, while Sui (SUI) and Zcash (ZEC) each slid around 10%. Gold, meanwhile, rose 1.7% to $4,600 per ounce on the back of geopolitical and trade risks. The move was seen as a boost to safe-haven demand after President Donald Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries including Denmark.

Some analysts argue the rebound itself was driven not by spot accumulation but by derivatives flows. In its weekly report, Glassnode said Bitcoin’s move toward $96,000 was “the result of ‘mechanical’ buying flows such as short liquidations in the futures market, rather than spot demand.” It warned that in an environment of thin futures liquidity, prices could retrace quickly once forced buying pressure fades, and noted that long-term holder supply accumulated near cycle highs has repeatedly capped the upside of the recent rebound.

CryptoQuant offered a more conservative read. It framed the advance since late November as a potential “bear-market rally” rather than the start of a new trend, pointing to Bitcoin’s position below its 365-day moving average—around $101,000—as a “regime boundary.” Spot demand has improved slightly but remains subdued, it said, while inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also limited.

Still, some signs of stabilization are emerging. Glassnode said long-term holder distribution has clearly slowed compared with late 2025, and that net spot buying has strengthened on major exchanges such as Binance, while Coinbase-led selling has eased. In the options market, near-term implied volatility is low, but demand for downside protection is reflected in medium- to long-dated contracts, indicating persistent caution. The overall assessment is that until spot demand clearly rebounds, Bitcoin will remain sensitive to shifts in leverage and liquidity.