‘Record weekly net outflows’ for an XRP ETF… “Selling pressure has intensified”

A U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) posted weekly net outflows for the first time since its launch. Sentiment toward XRP has also cooled in the derivatives market. Some observers say the price could trade sideways around $2 for the time being.

According to crypto analytics firm SoSoValue on the 27th (local time), roughly $41 million (about KRW 60 billion) flowed out of spot XRP ETFs last week. This marked the first weekly net outflow for spot XRP ETFs since they were listed in November last year. Total net assets, which had recently surged to as high as $1.6 billion, slid to $1.36 billion.

Spot XRP ETFs had initially held up relatively well even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw persistent outflows. Both spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs recorded monthly net outflows for three consecutive months from November last year through this month, extending their sluggish run. That contrasts with spot XRP ETFs, which had maintained a near two-month streak of net inflows.

However, the trend began to falter from the 7th of this month. At the time, XRP ETFs logged daily net outflows for the first time since launch. Inflows then lost momentum, and on the 20th, fallout from the U.S.-driven ‘Greenland shock’ triggered about $53 million in net outflows in a single day. Analysts also say the recent nearly 20% drop in XRP from this month’s high (around $2.4) added to profit-taking pressure.

XRP holdings on centralized exchanges (CEXs) are also rising. According to CryptoQuant, as of the previous day (26th), XRP holdings at Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, totaled about 2.72 billion tokens—its highest level in roughly two months since November last year. On Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, XRP holdings stood at about 6.3 billion tokens as of the previous day, setting a new high for the first time in 1 year and 2 months since November 2024. Typically, rising crypto balances on exchanges are seen as increasing the likelihood of heightened selling pressure.

Against this backdrop, the derivatives market has also weakened. Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, said, “XRP open interest (OI) has steadily declined and recently fell below $500 million,” adding that “the downtrend has continued since the large-scale liquidation event in October last year.” In fact, XRP open interest fell by more than 70% over the past six months, from about 1.7 billion in July last year to about 500 million this month.

Analysts also say that strengthening fundamentals for Ripple’s dollar stablecoin RLUSD has not been enough to lift XRP’s upside momentum. RLUSD has recently drawn attention after being listed on Binance. Its market capitalization has also jumped to about $1.33 billion as of the day, more than 13 times higher than a year earlier (about $99 million). Kim Min-seung, head of Korbit’s research center, said, “There is no direct link between RLUSD’s listing or the increase in issuance and XRP’s value,” adding, “RLUSD usage has yet to stand out on-chain or in the real economy.”

There is also a view that XRP could remain stuck in a range around $2. In particular, some analysis suggests on-chain indicators are showing a pattern similar to early 2022. U.S. crypto outlet Cointelegraph reported, “XRP traded sideways in the $0.3–$0.7 range for three years from 2022 to 2024,” adding, “If this pattern repeats, XRP could trade sideways near $2 for an extended period until a major breakout above resistance.”