"Bitcoin’s real bottom is $50,000"…2022 bear-market replay revives debate over the floor

Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a short-term rebound, but skeptical sentiment remains dominant in the market that a “true bottom” has yet to be established.

According to Cointelegraph on the 8th (local time), Bitcoin recently regained the $71,000 level, rebounding about 20% from the 15-month low set last week. Even so, doubts remain high over whether this bounce will lead to a trend reversal.

Analyst Filbfilb shared a chart comparing Bitcoin’s recent price action with the 2022 bear market, saying it should be taken “at face value.” Pointing to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA, around $95,300), he noted that “it’s hard to view the current rebound as a structural recovery.” Technical analyst Tony Severino also said, citing multiple indicators, that “the likelihood of further lows is high.”

Trader BitBull argued that “Bitcoin’s final capitulation has not happened yet. A real bottom could form below $50,000, where most exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors move into loss territory.” On-chain data show the average purchase price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is around $82,000, meaning that if prices fall further, the majority of ETF investors would be sitting on unrealized losses.

Long-term trend indicators are also flashing warning signals. The market is watching the $58,000–$68,000 range—defined by the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA)—as a key support zone.

Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, said that in 2022 Bitcoin staged one rebound after retesting the 200-week moving average, but ultimately failed to hold it and plunged. “The current move is similar to the first retest phase back then,” he said. However, he added that “the market doesn’t repeat the past perfectly” and that “it’s not possible to be definitive about what comes next.”