Four key variables this week—US CPI, jobs data and more—put Bitcoin’s near-term direction to the test

Major US economic releases this week, along with remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, are emerging as key drivers that could shape the near-term trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader digital-asset market.

According to US cryptocurrency-focused outlet BeInCrypto on the 9th, markets this week are watching four events as the main focal points: comments from Fed officials, employment data, initial jobless claims and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These indicators influence the path of the policy rate and the liquidity outlook—factors that have long served as key catalysts in Bitcoin’s price cycle.

First, a podcast interview with a Fed governor is scheduled for the 9th (local time). Ahead of the remarks, the market is split. Some investors say a relatively flexible stance on stablecoins could be positive for the broader digital-asset ecosystem, while others warn that if the policy message is read as hawkish, it could weigh on risk assets more broadly.

On the 11th, the US employment report will be released. Consensus expectations point to a modest improvement in net job gains from the prior reading. If the jobs data disappoint, expectations for earlier Fed rate cuts could strengthen, which could be supportive for Bitcoin in the short term. However, if softer employment feeds recession worries, the potential for a broader risk-off move cannot be ruled out.

Initial jobless claims, due on the 12th, are also seen as a release that could amplify near-term volatility. Recent increases in claims have coincided with broader liquidations in crypto markets and sharp price swings. Some investors interpret this as a signal of easier monetary conditions, but others note it could heighten market unease in the near term.

The most important inflection point will be the January CPI and core CPI, due on the 13th. Inflation data are a key variable for gauging the Fed’s policy direction, and the recent disinflation trend has supported risk appetite.

If inflation comes in below expectations, expectations for rate cuts in 2026 could re-emerge, potentially strengthening Bitcoin’s rebound momentum. Conversely, if inflation re-accelerates, concerns that the peak rate will be maintained for longer could intensify, likely weighing on the broader digital-asset market.