Ki Young Ju: “Bitcoin (BTC) is structurally in a phase where a bullish reversal is difficult”

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is structurally positioned such that it is difficult to generate short-term upside momentum despite large-scale capital inflows. The assessment is that selling pressure has accumulated excessively in on-chain data, weakening the linkage between inflows and increases in market capitalization.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said on the 9th (local time) via his X (formerly Twitter) that “Bitcoin is currently in a state where pumping is impossible,” and released data comparing recent capital flows with changes in market capitalization.

According to him, in 2024, an inflow of about $10 billion lifted Bitcoin’s book value by roughly $26 billion. By contrast, last year, despite inflows of about $308 billion, Bitcoin’s market capitalization actually fell by $98 billion.

Explaining the discrepancy, Ju said it reflects a structure in which “selling pressure across the market is so heavy that inflows do not translate directly into price gains.” Even when funds flow in, they are consumed absorbing sell orders from existing holders, limiting upside momentum.

He noted that in such an environment, additional institutional buying or corporate digital-asset (crypto) treasury strategies are also unlikely to lead to a short-term price rebound. He added that Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases and listed firms’ digital-asset treasury (DAT) strategies may also have limited impact until the market structure shifts.

Ju added that “until the market returns to a pumpable state, the existing rule of thumb that inflows translate directly into price increases is unlikely to work.” This is interpreted as a call to focus on structural supply-demand shifts rather than short-term market moves.